On September 28, at a press conference in Yerevan, Robert Kocharyan, the ex-president of Armenia, the head of the opposition bloc "Armenia," said that we should expect attempts to dismantle the main state institutions in [separatist] Nagorno-Karabakh soon. 

"One gets the impression that the [Nagorno-] Karabakh authorities have to some extent adapted to the current situation in the negotiations [between Armenia and Azerbaijan]," he said. According to him, the authorities of the [unrecognized] republic adhere to the following position: "Armenia has washed its hands. There is nothing to do—we will have to cooperate with Azerbaijan." He stated: "Stepanakert's dependence on Baku has only increased in recent years, along with the new road in the Lachin corridor, a new branch of the gas pipeline, power lines, and communications between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh were not laid." "All this creates a level of dependence that allows Baku to create a no-win situation for [separatist] Nagorno-Karabakh at any second," the former Armenian leader believes.

Kocharyan stated that Armenia is in a deep security crisis when the authorities cannot guarantee and protect the country's territorial integrity. "The latest escalation [on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border] also demonstrated that the authorities cannot involve our partners in fulfilling the obligations enshrined in the agreements," Kocharyan believes. According to him, the authorities were carried away by the utopian thesis of starting an era of peace and thus ignored many issues related to security. "This is another failure of the chosen course," the former head of state underlined. "The role of Baku and Ankara in the light of recent events in the region has increased dramatically, and the levers of external influence on Turkey and Azerbaijan have become limited," Kocharyan stated.

The head of the opposition bloc "Armenia" stated that Armenia needs social consolidation—an indispensable condition without which nothing will work. Commenting on the recent call for socio-political consolidation by Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the first President of the republic, he added: "Usually, consolidation happens in the name of achieving high goals. However, now there are calls for unity to help make difficult decisions. Consolidation is provided to push the people to victory. There is no need for consolidation to capitulate. On the contrary, deconsolidation is necessary for surrender."

According to him, surrender leads to degradation and a sense of helplessness. "Perhaps this is exactly what those people calling for consolidation around capitulation need," he suggested. "To solve the problem, it is necessary to identify its source and then neutralize it," the ex-president continued. "If there is a tumor, it needs to be removed. Consolidation must be ensured around difficult-to-reach goals that require the people's will. In this context, a change of power is an imperative requirement. The change of power in a parliamentary country can be complete or partial. A partial change of power is the election of a new prime minister by the parliament, in which the controlling stake remains with the ruling power. This is a topic for discussion in the political arena. One thing is obvious; we cannot heal in the environment that infected us," Kocharyan summed up.

He also said that the Armenian leadership should change the strategy of relations with Russia. The former head of Armenia recalled that Russia remains the only player with real opportunities in the South Caucasus. "I do not believe that the United States or France will take responsibility for our security. Since only Russia has real opportunities on earth [in the region]," Kocharyan noted. According to him, at the same time, Armenia should use all the means to restrain Azerbaijan. In this context, the ex-president welcomes the statements of the US and France and the recent visit of the speaker of the lower house of the US Congress, Nancy Pelosi, to Yerevan. At the same time, Kocharyan urged Armenians not to forget that the same United States has weakened its levers of influence on Turkey, just like Russia's on Azerbaijan. "Moscow is currently shackled by the situation in Ukraine as well as the defeat of Armenia, its only ally in the region, in the 44-day war in Karabakh in the fall of 2020," he added. The ex-president further stressed that Russia would continue to be the leading external force in the South Caucasus and that it is pointless to accuse it of defending its interests in relations with Azerbaijan. "We do nothing and then complain that our ally is actively building relations with Azerbaijan. We also have to work to convince Russia that Armenia is still something in the region, and with such a policy they can lose us. However, we cannot afford to spoil relations with Russia," Kocharyan stated.

He stated that it is necessary to soberly assess what factors or countries can influence Turkey and Azerbaijan in preventing further aggressive actions on their part against Armenia. The former head of state noted that these levers of influence in the hands of Russia and the CSTO had been significantly reduced. "Neither the United States, France, nor Russia has leverage over Turkey. No one can influence [Turkish President] Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He demonstrates a real master class in protecting his country's national interests," Kocharyan stated. 

Referring to the recent dissatisfaction of the Armenian authorities with the CSTO, the ex-president noted that all countries of this regional collective security organization have excellent relations with Azerbaijan, both at the interstate level and at the level of leaders. "Against this background, relying on the intervention of the CSTO is evidence of geopolitical incompetence," the opposition politician believes. Robert Kocharyan is confident that Russia is doing and will do everything possible to prevent clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan. "However, these will be political and diplomatic steps. Today, Russia has allied relations with Azerbaijan, and discussing the possibility of Russia's participation in military operations against Azerbaijan is nonsense. It will not happen," he said. The ex-president continued that in this context, favorable conditions have been created to form anti-Russian relations and loosen Armenian-Russian relations. "The remote control of anti-Russian sentiments today is in the hands of Ilham Aliyev. Another aggression, more than two hundred more dead [from the Armenian side], and here you have another wave of anti-Russian sentiment," Kocharyan noted.

Robert Kocharyan stated that the most vulnerable part of Armenia is currently the Syunik region. "This is the territory in respect of which Azerbaijan and Turkey make the most claims, and this becomes obvious. Besides Armenia, for which country is Syunik important? This is Iran," the former head of state said. According to him, the country that can take practical steps to protect this southeastern region of Armenia is Iran. "In two years after the 44-day war in Karabakh in the fall of 2020], almost nothing has been done in this direction. At least two military exercises were to be held with Iran in Syunik. During this time, a contractual basis with Iran should have been created. And all this would be the biggest deterrent for Azerbaijan," Kocharyan believes. 

He said that in May 2021, there were contacts with Iran, but then the Armenian side froze this process. "And it is not too late now. We must take certain fateful steps, realizing it is necessary to convince Russia. We are not talking about withdrawing from the CSTO - this would be another stupidity - because there are agreements on the purchase of weapons. We just need to add new components to our security system. I am sure it is possible to convince the Russian side and form a new trilateral format with Armenia-Russia-Iran," the ex-president concluded.