The IX Global Baku Forum on "Threats to the Global Order" kicked off on June 16 under the auspices of Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and was organized by the Nizami Ganjavi International Center. The leader of Azerbaijan made a speech at the opening ceremony.

“Why did we choose peace? Because we want to see stable, sustainable development in the South Caucasus. This is a rare opportunity. The South Caucasus was divided during the years of independence of the three South Caucasus countries. Due to the Armenian occupation, it was divided for 30 years. Now is the time to establish peace and cooperation, and Azerbaijan is working towards it,” he said.

“As for the process of normalization of relations with Armenia, we offered to start working on a peace agreement. Armenia did not respond. Then we took another step. We have put forward five basic principles of international law and other principles that form the basis of our proposal, including the principle of mutual respect and recognition of the borders and territorial integrity of both countries, and the mutual avoidance of any territorial claims now and in the future. We are pleased that the Armenian government has adopted these five principles,” added the Azerbaijani President.

Aliyev said that Armenians have been using the Lachin road for a year and a half and have unimpeded communication. Azerbaijanis cannot use the road passing through Armenia and the Zangezur corridor connecting us with Nakhchivan. This is unfair and we will not agree with it. “If we are not provided with this way of communication, it will be difficult to talk about peace, and all efforts of Azerbaijan to establish coexistence and normal neighbourly relations with Armenia will fail,” he added.

“Another issue I would like to draw your attention to is the Armenian population in Azerbaijan. The statement issued by Mr. Charles Michel on the results of our trilateral meeting between the President of the Council of the European Union and the Prime Minister of Armenia Pashinyan in Brussels clearly states that the rights and security of the Armenian population living in Nagorno-Karabakh will be taken into account. We fully support it,” he said.

“The history of the last century clearly shows that in November 1920, six months after the Sovietization of Azerbaijan, the Soviet government annexed Zangezur, a historical part of Azerbaijan, and gave it to Armenia. So, if Armenia will try to demand status for Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, why shouldn't Azerbaijanis demand status for themselves in Western Zangezur? The population of those areas was entirely Azerbaijani. This approach will lead to a dilemma, and I think that the Armenian government should not forget the lessons of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. He must study this lesson well and refrain from any territorial claims against Azerbaijan,” underlined Aliyev.

Aliyev also stated: “Another issue I want you to be aware of is the assumptions about the activities of the OSCE Minsk Group. The Minsk Group was established in 1992 and its mandate was to help resolve the conflict. However, in fact, this activity brought zero results. Imagine that this group, which received a mandate from the OSCE, has not achieved any results for 28 years. After Azerbaijan resolves the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, there is no need for the Minsk Group to act. I think everyone understands that. Especially after the Russia-Ukraine war, it is clear that the three co-chairs of the Minsk Group will not be able to come together, and we have already received messages that the co-chairing institution of this group will not work. That is, the Minsk Group has lost its utility. Attempts to revive it are also ineffective. I think the best way to deal with this is to say goodbye to the Minsk Group. Thank you and goodbye, not just goodbye. 30 years were enough, it's time to retire.”

“Our vision of the Caucasus is integration and cooperation, and Azerbaijan has repeatedly offered to start and take the first steps. We have consulted with our Georgian counterparts on this issue, and the Georgian government supports the idea to hold a trilateral meeting in Georgia at the level of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia to start a dialogue. Unfortunately, Armenia refuses to do so. I do not know the reason for this, and I cannot find a satisfactory explanation. As far as I know, similar initiatives have been put forward by some European institutions. However, it was still refused. So, we need a clear answer from Armenia. How do they see the South Caucasus? Our position is clear, and the position of the Georgian government is clear. We must start a dialogue and make contacts. But, of course, this will not be possible without Armenia,” Ilham Aliyev highlighted.

Regarding energy cooperation with Europe, Aliyev said that “I would like to say a few words about energy security. We are doing our best to meet the growing needs of many countries. Over the past few months, we have received requests for gas supplies from many European countries. Of course, this is not an easy task. First of all, that gas must be produced, and we did not plan to increase gas production. We are currently working with the European Commission on this issue. We have launched an energy dialogue with the European Commission. This includes not only gas, but also oil, electricity, and hydrogen. Azerbaijan has great potential for renewable energy.”

Regional responses to Aliyev's speech

Farhad Mammadov, an Azerbaijani political scientist and expert of the Valdai International Discussion Club argued that Azerbaijan's position is clear and consistent. According to him, it covers all issues and does not go beyond the five basic principles proposed by Baku as the basis for negotiating a peace treaty.

“From the speech of the head of state, we also learned about the initiative to hold a meeting in a trilateral format between the South Caucasian countries at the level of foreign ministers, and that Armenia refused this,” he said. Mammadov added that summarizing all these aspects, we see the following: for more than a year and a half, two actual formats have been formed - with the participation of Russia and the European Union - within which Azerbaijan has been able to advance its agenda. “That is, within the framework of both formats, only topics and issues that are on the agenda of Azerbaijan are considered. Nothing is discussed beyond its boundaries - neither Armenia's initiative on the so-called "status", nor the revival of the OSCE Minsk Group. And the very terminology of processes also corresponds to the terminology used by Baku,” he summarized.

“As for the prospects, the President of Azerbaijan highlighted the issue of the Zangezur corridor and compared it with the mode of operation of the Lachin corridor. At the same time, he called the Lachin corridor a road. Indeed, if you look logically, then in this case the terms "corridor" and "road" are different. That is, if a "corridor" connects one part of the country's territory with another part of it, then the "road" goes from one country to another. And that was a message to Russia and the European Union as the mediators that decisions should already have been made. Since the Lachin corridor is being used, Azerbaijan is fulfilling its obligations for unhindered passage and ensuring the safety of people and goods. But Armenia does not fulfil its obligations,” he specified.

Mammadov stated, “The President emphasized that all this is becoming similar to the previous period, when Armenia constantly refused, refused and refused - he even repeated it three times - and as a result, this led to a war, to the resolution of the conflict by force. It was a hint, a message to the mediators - they need to hurry up and encourage Armenia to fulfil its obligations. They must choose the actor or mechanism - economic or political - for themselves. But the process needs to be accelerated.”

The Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to Aliyev’s remarks. “We not only have not rejected, but also have always positively reacted to such a possible meeting. At the same time we have to note that work needs to be done to ensure the efficiency of the meeting”, the spokesperson Vahan Hunanyan said.

The Armenian Azerbaijan expert Tatevik Hayrapetyan noted: “During the discussion on ‘Threats of the Global World Order’ at the Baku IX Global Forum, Aliyev once again proved in his speech the thesis that Azerbaijan will continue to make new territorial demands towards Armenia and the current government may push policy and relentless propaganda of defeat that will lead to a total loss of statehood. There will be a "peace treaty" as soon as possible if Armenia recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan. We will lose Armenia quickly. Aliyev understands it well.” She added that the "engineer" of the negotiation process, and in fact, the manipulator – Pashinyan –  does not answer a simple question. If all the former authorities recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan, then why didn't Azerbaijan provide such a peaceful settlement?” “And in fact, Pashinyan creates an "alibi" to hand over Karabakh, hinting that he saves Armenia in this way. Today's Speech at the National Assembly is another proof of that. In fact, handing over Nagorno-Karabakh is the shortest and fastest way to destroy Armenia. Unfortunately, our opponents know it very well,” she concluded

Speaking at a panel on "Ukraine War, Resistance, Refugees and Reconstruction" within the IX Baku Global Forum, former Georgian Deputy Prime Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili stressed the importance of Ukraine's victory. He added that Russia is not a reliable country at the moment. “We must be sure that Russia will emerge from this war without a victory,” Eka Tkeshelashvili said. Former Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga said that Russia denied the war of aggression in Ukraine and called it a special operation. He stressed that Russia has current imperialist interests. The former President of Latvia recalled the mass deportation of the Baltic peoples under Stalin: “Now is the time to make a choice. We have to decide what kind of global system we want and choose to be on the right side of history.” Former Ukrainian Presidents Viktor Yushchenko and Petro Poroshenko joined the panel online,” said Elkhan Shahinoglu, an expert at the Atlas Research Center. “The holding of a panel on the war in Ukraine at an international conference in Baku and the condemnation of Russia's occupation of the neighbouring country are commendable. Azerbaijan has once again stated that it supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine and condemns the war of aggression, which serves Russia's imperial interests. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who will arrive in Baku in a few days, was also informed about the views of the Azerbaijani political elite and society on the war in Ukraine,” he added.