Comments from Armenia and Azerbaijan regarding Pashinyan-Erdoğan conversation

| News, Azerbaijan

Turkish lawmaker of Armenian descent Garo Paylan expressed hope that recent phone talks between the leaders of Armenia and Turkey will speed up the ongoing normalization process between the two countries.

Farhad Mammadov, an Azerbaijani political scientist and expert of the Valdai International Discussion Club, believes that after several negotiations between Armenia and Turkey, the negotiators understand how they can move. “At the same time, in the opinion of the expert himself, the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations can take place in one of two formats: from larger to smaller or from smaller to larger,” he said. “If Armenia continues to put forward theses about the status of Karabakh, which is identical to territorial claims against Azerbaijan, and refuses to sign a peace treaty, then there will be no need to talk about the full normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. Of course, some decisions will be implemented soon. However, we must understand that any element of normalizing Armenian-Turkish relations is conditioned and should be conditioned by specific decisions on the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement," the political scientist said. “As for the establishment of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia, this will be possible after the signing of a peace treaty between Yerevan and Baku. One way or another, any step in the Armenian-Turkish normalization should be conditional on progress in the Armenian-Azerbaijani track,” the expert underlined. Nevertheless, the Azerbaijani political scientist believes in some progress in Armenian-Turkish relations. However, everything depends on the Armenian leadership's behavior, decisions, and statements.

According to Secretary of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan in an interview with Public Television, the phone call between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is another crucial step in the process of normalizing relations between Armenia and Turkey. He said that the opening of the border to residents of other countries and the movement of commodities were extensively discussed by the prime ministers of Armenia and Turkey. "I think it will be possible to open the border for the citizens of Armenia and Turkey in the future," Grigoryan said.

Elkhan Shahinoglu, an expert at the Atlas Research Center, stated that it is no coincidence that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spoke with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin by phone a few hours after his first phone conversation with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. “It is not an exception that the leaders of the two countries will meet in the framework of an international conference soon. Most likely, diplomats of both countries have been tasked to prepare this meeting,” he stated. The expert underlined: “A few days ago, the Armenian media reported that Nikol Pashinyan asked the owner of the Kremlin for permission to talk to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan by phone. Since Putin is not against the Ankara-Yerevan dialogue, he was positive about the leaders' phone conversation. Official news reported that the UN safe corridor plan for the export of grain in the Black Sea and the situation in Ukraine were discussed in the telephone conversation between Putin and Erdoğan, but there is no doubt that they also discussed the current state of Ankara's dialogue with Yerevan.” “What does this process have to do with Azerbaijan? First, Ankara conducts its contacts with Yerevan in connection with Baku. This means that Baku is not against the recent agreements between Ankara and Yerevan and the leaders' telephone conversations. Secondly, the 3+3 platform proposed by Erdoğan needs to be operational to reduce tensions in the region. For this purpose, the Ankara-Yerevan dialogue is necessary. However, this does not mean that this dialogue will bring positive results in all directions. For the general progress to have a positive outcome, Armenia should recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and Turkey, give up territorial claims against both countries, and support separatism. Until this happens, the overall result will not be positive,” he concluded.

Opposition lawmaker Aram Vardevanyan also reacted to the phone call between the Armenian and Turkish leaders, accusing Nikol Pashinyan of acting against his statements. The Armenian opposition maintains that Ankara has not dropped its preconditions for Armenian-Turkish normalization. "Any public officer must be accountable for their statements. Moreover, the bar is much higher when the country's leader is involved. It has been publicly announced multiple times that the normalization of relations with Turkey cannot be considered separately from Turkey's role based on the circumstances of the 44-day war," Vardevanyan, who represents the Hayastan alliance, said.

Natig Jafarli, Member of the Political Committee of the Republican Alternative Party, stated: “Our region needs peace, cooperation, and economic integration like air and water. Normalizing relations between Turkey and Armenia will positively affect Azerbaijan-Armenia negotiations.”

Political analyst from Armenia Tigran Grigoryan described telephone conversation as another unprecedented development. “This is the current state of affairs in this process: Ankara is interested in imitating the normalization process. Yerevan genuinely wants normalization and tries to push Turkey towards it. However, it will be extremely difficult to move forward without the willingness of one of the sides,” he added.

The political analyst Areg Kochinyan believes that any step towards a settlement improves the Armenian-Turkish agenda. He emphasizes that the Pashinyan-Erdoğan telephone conversation should not be overestimated but should not be underestimated either. It should be seen as a step forward. The political scientist says that the conversation between the two countries' leaders can lead to different conclusions: "Someone can say that a substantive process is underway, and as a result, we will come to the normalization of relations. Another point of view may be that Turkey is more interested in creating an imitation of the settlement of relations than in a real settlement. It seems that reality is somewhere in the middle."

The political observer from Armenia, Hakob Badalyan, said: “The normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations is based on two key footholds: Turkish-American and Russian-Turkish relations.” "The suggestion that without balancing these two factors, any significant progress in the Armenian-Turkish settlement is possible is wishful thinking. Moreover, this balancing act is a challenging task, especially today,” he stated. The observer recalls that the conversation between Pashinyan and Erdoğan was followed by a phone conversation between Erdoğan and Putin. Moreover, a few days before that, the Russian President raised the issue of resolving Armenian-Turkish relations in a conversation with Pashinyan. He believes that correctly assessing the Armenian-Turkish process will allow Armenia "not to fall into illusions and not have high expectations, and also prevent the risk of becoming a bargaining chip."

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