EAEU Leaders Warn Armenia as Russia Outlines Economic Fallout of EU Shift
EAEU leaders and Russian officials warned that Armenia’s move toward EU integration could threaten economic ties within the union, called for a referendum on the issue, and outlined potential consequences while Armenian and Russian leaders continued diplomatic engagement, including a phone call between Pashinyan and Putin.
Joint Statement of EAEU
On May 29, the full text of a joint statement adopted by the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia concerning developments related to Armenia and its evolving relationship with the European Union was published. In the document, the presidents of the four countries stated that they had taken into account Armenia’s recent steps toward EU accession, including the adoption in 2025 by the National Assembly of Armenia of the law titled "On Initiating the Process of the Republic of Armenia’s Accession to the European Union," as well as its signing by the Armenian President. They also referenced the European Union’s acknowledgment of Armenia’s European aspirations in a joint declaration following the Armenia–EU summit held on May 5, 2026.
The statement further noted that these developments were viewed as creating significant risks for the economic security of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). It stressed that Armenia’s preparatory steps toward EU membership could potentially cause economic damage to the union and its member states, emphasizing the need to prevent such outcomes. According to the joint text, the leaders agreed that representatives of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia in the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council should present a report at the December 2026 meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council. The report is expected to assess possible consequences related to the suspension of the EAEU Treaty’s application with respect to Armenia.
The statement also includes a position shared by the signatories on holding a nationwide referendum in Armenia. As it reads, "We share the position regarding the necessity of holding a nationwide referendum in the Republic of Armenia—within the shortest possible timeframe—on accession to the European Union or on continued membership in the Eurasian Economic Union."
Remarks by Peskov
On May 29, Dmitry Peskov, Press Secretary to the President of Russia, stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko briefly touched upon developments concerning Armenia on the sidelines of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) summit in Astana. According to Peskov, the two leaders exchanged views several times during the event, but no detailed discussion took place due to time constraints. He added that a longer conversation involving the summit participants occurred later during an informal dinner.
Commenting on Russia's decision to restrict tomato imports from Armenia, Peskov stated that Moscow had not yet received any official reaction from Yerevan. He also stressed that Armenia's pursuit of closer ties with the European Union is a sovereign decision, but emphasized that such a course should not come at the expense of the financial and economic interests of EAEU member states. According to Peskov, Armenia's gradual alignment with EU standards could eventually create contradictions with the legal and regulatory framework of the Eurasian Economic Union.
Remarks by Ushakov
Yuri Ushakov, Assistant to the Russian President, stated that Armenia was among the topics discussed during the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council. He described the conversation as businesslike and noted that all participants were aware of the circumstances surrounding Yerevan's current political course. Ushakov also confirmed that Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan represented Armenia at the summit and that no request had been submitted for a separate meeting with Vladimir Putin.
According to Ushakov, the leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan adopted a joint statement concerning Armenia's position and handed the document to Grigoryan for delivery to Yerevan. While declining to disclose the contents of the statement, Ushakov confirmed that it would be published later.
Remarks by Overchuk
Alexei Overchuk, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, stated that Armenia continues to express its desire to remain a member of the EAEU. However, he noted that several unresolved issues remain. According to Overchuk, discussions during the Astana summit confirmed that Yerevan officially maintains its commitment to participation in the Eurasian integration framework, although certain "nuances" still require attention.
Remarks by Putin
On the same day, Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, addressed the issue of Armenia's possible withdrawal from the EAEU and outlined potential consequences. According to the Russian President, Armenian citizens would lose a number of existing privileges if the country left the organization. He noted that Armenian labor migrants would be required to obtain work permits in Russia, while access to compulsory health insurance would become subject to stricter residency requirements.
Putin also stated that preferential conditions currently enjoyed by Armenia in sectors such as transportation, railway tariffs, and energy supplies would cease to apply. He emphasized that Russian domestic railway tariffs would be replaced by the standard rates applicable to other CIS countries and warned that energy costs would inevitably increase.
Referring to assessments prepared by Russian experts, Putin stated that Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU could result in the loss of at least 14 percent of the country's GDP. He contrasted economic indicators within the EAEU and the European Union, arguing that the Eurasian bloc had demonstrated stronger cumulative growth over the previous three years.
The Russian President further called for a referendum on Armenia's geopolitical orientation to be organized "as soon as possible." He recalled previous remarks by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan regarding the possibility of holding a public vote on whether Armenia should remain within the EAEU or pursue membership in the European Union.
Russian Ambassador to Armenia Recalled to Moscow
On May 30, Sergey Kopyrkin, the Russian Ambassador to Armenia, was recalled to Moscow for consultations. According to a statement issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry, the decision was linked to steps taken by the Armenian leadership toward closer integration with the European Union, which Moscow believes undermine cooperation within the EAEU framework.
Remarks by Lukashenko
On May 31, Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, commented extensively on Armenia's political course following the Astana summit. He confirmed that EAEU leaders had discussed Armenia's position behind closed doors and subsequently signed a joint statement on the matter. Lukashenko emphasized that none of the EAEU member states wished to see Armenia leave the organization. At the same time, he stated that the union respects the sovereign choice of the Armenian people and would accept any decision reached through a democratic referendum. "We respect the choice of the Armenian people," Lukashenko stated.
According to the Belarusian leader, the statement adopted in Astana also reflected support for the Armenian leadership's publicly declared intention to hold a referendum on the issue. He stressed that such a vote should be conducted honestly, openly, and democratically, adding that EAEU members would respect the outcome regardless of the result. Lukashenko argued, however, that Armenian society should carefully assess both the benefits and the costs of a possible departure from the EAEU. He noted that Putin had undertaken to explain publicly the economic implications of such a move. Referring to examples from other countries, Lukashenko pointed to the lengthy accession processes experienced by Ukraine and Turkey, suggesting that EU membership should not be viewed as a quick or guaranteed outcome.
The Belarusian President also urged Armenians to exercise caution when determining the country's future course. He warned against repeating mistakes that, in his view, contributed to developments in Ukraine. According to Lukashenko, discussions surrounding Armenia's potential withdrawal from the EAEU are being intensified by the domestic political environment ahead of parliamentary elections. "We are not pressuring the people," Lukashenko stated, while arguing that some political actors are exploiting the issue for electoral purposes. He further claimed that certain external forces were encouraging anti-Russian and anti-Belarusian narratives in Armenia and suggested that recent European engagement with Yerevan was linked to those efforts. Lukashenko also revealed details of a telephone conversation held on May 24 with Emmanuel Macron, the President of France. According to him, the discussion focused largely on the war in Ukraine and prospects for peace negotiations. Lukashenko stated that he encouraged Macron to play a leading role in promoting direct dialogue and invited him to visit either Minsk or Moscow for talks with Russian leaders.
Recalling the conversation, Lukashenko said he urged Macron to act as a mediator capable of advancing diplomatic efforts. "You are the elder statesman; it's time for you to get moving," Lukashenko remarked, arguing that the French President is currently one of Europe's most influential political figures.
Remarks by Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus
Natalia Petkevich, Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus, also addressed Armenia-related issues while discussing the Astana summit. According to Petkevich, the situations involving Armenia and Moldova demonstrate the need for additional mechanisms within the EAEU to ensure that member states fully comply with the obligations and objectives of the organization.
Petkevich emphasized that accession to the EAEU should remain a demanding process and argued that observer status or membership arrangements must generate tangible benefits for both the Union and its partners. She stated that existing EAEU treaties do not adequately address some of the challenges currently facing the organization and noted that summit participants generally agreed on the need to develop new instruments for managing such situations.
She also highlighted decisions adopted during the summit regarding industrial and agricultural cooperation, noting that the heads of state signed a package of documents intended to complete the legal framework necessary for implementing joint projects in these sectors. According to Petkevich, the new measures will enable broader and more effective cooperation throughout the Eurasian Economic Union.
Phone Call Between Pashinyan and Putin
On June 1, Nikol Pashinyan, the Prime Minister of Armenia, held a telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin. During the call, Putin congratulated Pashinyan on his birthday and extended his best wishes. Pashinyan, the Prime Minister of Armenia, expressed gratitude to Putin for the congratulations and the phone call.
The interlocutors also discussed current issues on both bilateral and multilateral agendas. Pashinyan stated that he appreciated the Russian President’s balanced positions on several issues that had led to misunderstandings, as well as his friendly tone and continued support. The sides agreed to continue their discussions at a mutually convenient time in a face-to-face meeting format.