(Special reporting for Caucasus Watch by Anna Vardanyan, 21.11.2018)

Armenia has fully entered the pre-election stage; the deadline for the submission of applications for participation in the snap elections is over. Accordingly, 11 political forces and alliances have applied to the Central Electoral Commission for nomination to the snap elections taking place on December 9.  Following parties and blocs have submitted documents to run for parliament: My Step bloc, Prosperous Armenia Party, National Progress party, Christian People's Revival party, Sasna Tsrer party, Rule of Law party, We bloc, ARF-D party, Bright Armenia party, Republican Party of Armenia, and Citizen's Decision party.

Pro-Russian and Pro-Western Forces

In Armenia, the political forces are only nominally separated from the pro-Western and pro-Russian parties. Consequently, the "We" bloc and the "Bright Armenia" party are viewed as liberal-pro-Western. Russia is currently trying to assess the ideological and political underlining of the parliament, and they begin to strengthen the relations with Prosperous and not with the Republicans. It is already visible that Russia tries to mobilize the pro-Russian electorate of Armenia. According to the Coordinator of the Eurasian Expert Group and President of the "Integration and Development" NGO Aram Safaryan, the anti-Russian forces will be active during the campaign and in this sense, it will be quite a tense period. "We are not against the exchange of thoughts, the competition of ideas and the struggle for beliefs and insights, but we are against the tendency of Armenia to become an arena for confrontation between Western and Russian orientations. ", the expert said. Meanwhile, the human rights advocate Avetik Ishkhanyan, who heads the Helsinki Committee of Armenia, thinks that this fight is artificial. "There have been artificial ideological clashes in Armenia for a long time, namely between a pro-Western and a pro-Russian orientation. I consider this to be very artificial, as there is no such ideology in any developed country. It can be part of foreign policy, but as a comprehensive political ideology this is not acceptable for me. I would identify that struggle as a lack of national self-confidence, "said the advocate.

The "My Step" alliance lead by acting Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, is comprised of members of the "Civil Contract" and "Mission" parties,  government representatives, MPs, public figures, journalists, and even drivers and housekeepers. Overall, Nikol Pashinyan's team consists of revolutionaries, as expected. Some experts believe that professionalism and other features were not prioritized during the recruitment of this team and only the fact of active participation in the revolution has been taken into consideration.

“Sasna Tsrer” is considered as a party of radical extremists, members of which initiated a rebellion against the former government in July 2016 and occupied the regiment of police patrol service. However, according to some analysts, “Sasna Tsrer” will come out less radical from these elections, as their main struggle was against the previous authorities, and between them and Nikol Pashinyan, ideological disagreements are mitigated. So far, only the Republican Party is viewed as a radical opposition, as it is the former ruling party. There are also significant changes among the Republicans list of candidates. The party tried to involve more ideological candidates, no businessmen and the so-called “odious” figures, that were on prior election lists.

Which forces have the opportunity to be elected to the parliament?

According to the survey conducted among experts, Nikol Pashinyan's team, will certainly take the first place, with its “My Step” alliance. The political analyst Aram Badalyan believes, this is indicated by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's high rating. "Probably, the “Prosperous Armenia (PAP) will be elected to the National Assembly as well, and three forces will likely compete for the third strongest position. These are the RPA," Sasna Tsrer "and " Bright Armenia ". It is difficult to say which of those forces will prevail, the 4th strongest party might also be elected to the parliament, but this is hard to predict at this point. The chance of other parties to get elected to parliament, including the “ARF”, the "We" bloc and the “Rule of Law” party is almost zero. ", emphasized Armen Badalyan. The main struggle between the parties will revolve around the chance to get the maximum thirty percent of mandates given to the opposition. Only two forces will have such an opportunity due to the current Electoral Code.

International community supports holding Armenia's elections under the highest quality standards

Although the election campaign has not officially started, OSCE / ODIHR observers have already arrived in Armenia. "As you know, all EU member states also support Armenia with their initiatives, and we can say that the support from Europe is really great.”, said the head of the EU Delegation, Ambassador Piotr Switalski in Yerevan, on November 21. Meanwhile, the EU and representatives of three member states - Germany, the United Kingdom and Sweden, separately stated they are ready to support the parliamentary snap elections in Armenia, moreover, that they will provide financial assistance to the government. Piotr Switalski also informed that the entire volume of the support coming from abroad will be exclusively European assistance, ie, from the European Union and the three mentioned member states. "There will be no American, no Japanese money. It is very important, to be honest, I'm really very proud of us, because the European Union usually expects that more time is needed, but we always have had in our mind, that elections can take place earlier. So we have anticipated money” said Switalski in an interview with RFE / RL. https://www.azatutyun.am/a/29550778.html

Reminder: the extraordinary parliamentary elections in Armenia will take place on December 9, the election campaigns will start November 26 and last until December 7.