The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts slower economic growth in Georgia in 2027, while Armenia’s projected expansion remains unchanged and Azerbaijan’s economy is expected to grow somewhat faster. According to the IMF’s October World Economic Outlook, Georgia’s real GDP is projected to increase by 5.7% in 2027, compared with 5.5% in Armenia and 2.3% in Azerbaijan.

For 2026, the IMF projects Georgia’s economy to expand by 7.2%, Armenia’s by 5.5% and Azerbaijan’s by 1.7%. Georgia’s growth is therefore expected to moderate by 1.5 percentage points in 2027, while Armenia’s projected rate remains unchanged. Azerbaijan, meanwhile, is expected to record a 0.6-percentage-point increase in its growth rate, although its projected expansion remains below those of its two neighbours. The forecasts describe expected changes in real economic output rather than nominal GDP growth.

The IMF’s labour-market projections present a different picture. Georgia’s unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 13.9% in both 2026 and 2027. Armenia’s rate is expected to decline slightly, from 12.8% to 12.7%, while Azerbaijan’s is projected to fall from 5.3% to 5.2%. Inflation is also expected to ease in Georgia and Armenia, while remaining comparatively elevated in Azerbaijan. The IMF projectsconsumer price growth in Georgia to fall from 5.4% in 2026 to 3.6% in 2027. Armenia’s inflation rate is forecast to decline from 4.6% to 3.6% over the same period. In Azerbaijan, consumer prices are expected to increase by 5.8% in 2026 and 5.6% in 2027, indicating a more gradual moderation.

Overall, the projections point to continued economic expansion across the South Caucasus, but at differing rates. Differences in unemployment and inflation forecasts add further context to the regional comparison, although the figures alone do not establish whether households will experience corresponding improvements in living standards. The forecasts remain subject to revision as economic conditions change.