On May 15, ING Group, the Netherlands’ largest banking group, stated that under the new oil market scenario Azerbaijan’s current account is projected to reach around 9–10% of GDP this year, while the consolidated budget surplus could rise to approximately 4% of GDP.

ING Group analysts stated that rising commodity prices, alongside strong portfolio investment inflows, are reinforcing external buffers across hydrocarbon-exporting CIS-4 countries, namely Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, while also supporting regional currencies. The bank noted that heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz, have contributed to a stronger commodity price environment. It added that, compared to its previous monthly assessment, the oil price forecast for FY26 has increased by $4 to $93 per barrel. ING Group emphasized that, based on macroeconomic sensitivities, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are expected to be the main beneficiaries of this development, while Uzbekistan and Armenia present a more balanced outlook.

The group further stated that CIS-4 economies are currently facing inflationary pressures linked to the global economic environment. It noted that although these pressures are prompting tighter monetary policy stances, they are unlikely to significantly affect overall economic activity in the region. ING Group analysts highlighted portfolio investment inflows as a key supportive factor for CIS-4 currencies, while warning that such flows can be volatile, as financial investors may react quickly to changing conditions compared to long-term corporate investors.

According to ING Group, the short- to medium-term outlook for CIS-4 floating currencies has improved compared to the previous month, although the longer-term view remains cautious pending structural economic transformation. The analysts also pointed out that while imported inflation pressures persist through external trade links with the EU, China, and other partners, domestic inflation dynamics are more contained in Azerbaijan compared to its regional peers. ING Group stated that Azerbaijan’s consumer price inflation stood at 5.6% year-on-year as of March, noting that despite imported inflation risks reflected in the central bank’s revised FY26–27 outlook, domestic demand pressures remain weak amid subdued growth. The bank also reported that Azerbaijan’s GDP contracted by 0.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, with overall full-year growth expected to remain in the low single digits.