On July 11, an OPEC report noted that Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan would play an increasingly important role in supplying oil to Europe in the long term.

According to the report, crude oil and condensate deliveries to Europe are expected to remain at approximately 1.6 million barrels per day until 2050, a figure notably lower than pre-sanctions levels when Russian oil moved freely into the European Union. The report emphasized that this volume, though diminished, highlights the rising strategic value of alternative Caspian suppliers, particularly Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

The document explained that following the EU’s embargo on Russian oil, traditional supply routes had been altered, with imports from Russia and the broader Caspian region projected to decline from 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024 to about 1.7 million barrels by 2030, and down to 1.6 million barrels by the forecast period’s end. Most of these future supplies, the report indicated, would originate from non-Russian producers, with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan responsible for a considerable share.

OPEC’s analysis assessed that it was improbable for Russian oil shipments to Europe to recover to the levels recorded before the outbreak of the conflict, thereby reinforcing Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan’s position as dependable and long-term suppliers for the European market.