Summary of the events

On October 6, as part of the European Council meeting in Prague, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Ilham Aliyev, and Nikol Pashinyan held an informal meeting. Erdoğan and Pashinyan had a conversation on bilateral ties. Ilham Aliyev then joined the discussion and broached the subject of managing relations between Yerevan and Baku. The three countries' foreign ministers were also present for the discussion. There was footage where Aliyev and Pashinyan tête-à-tête discussed several issues that have not been revealed.

On the same day, within the framework of the first meeting of the European Political Community in Prague, Nikol Pashinyan, the Prime Minister of Armenia, and Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan, met at the initiative of the President of the French Republic Emmanuel Macron and Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, the Press Offices of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders reported.

Armenia and Azerbaijan confirmed their commitment to the UN Charter and the Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991, through which both sides recognize each other's territorial integrity and sovereignty. They confirmed that this will serve as the basis for the work of the commissions on delimitation and that the next meeting of these commissions will take place in Brussels by the end of October. Armenia agreed to support the EU civilian mission along the border with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan agreed to cooperate with the mentioned mission to the extent it will be concerned. The mission will start its work in October for a maximum period of two months. The purpose of the mission will be to build confidence and, through its reports, support the border commissions.

Comments from Armenia and Azerbaijan

Farhad Mammadov, the Director of the Center for Studies of the South Caucasus, called the joint statement extremely important. "It marks the first time the mutual recognition of territorial integrity with references to the UN Charter and the Alma-Athena Declaration. This is one of the five principles Azerbaijan proposed for the basis of the text of the peace treaty," the expert recalled. "Thus, Azerbaijan is practically leading Armenia to reject at an official level territorial claims to Azerbaijan and the obligation not to make such claims in the future," he added. "If the agreed deadlines are violated this time, Azerbaijan will act unilaterally by its agenda. The priority is the demilitarization of Karabakh, the suspension of resource support by Armenia to the Armenian population of Karabakh, and the clarification of positions on the border," said Farhad Mammadov. He stated: "Armenia admits that it is time to give up Karabakh - it has come to an understanding that Armenia cannot guarantee Karabakh's safety. However, will it remain at the level of statements and even signing a peace treaty recognizing the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, or will there be other actions? Do other actions mean the withdrawal of the remains of the Armenian Armed Forces from Karabakh and refusal to hold the Arayik [Arayik Harutyunyan, the separatist leader of the Nagorno-Karabakh] junta and the Armenian population of Karabakh? We will know this at most within a month - when Pashinyan's government will submit the draft budget for 2023 to Parliament. Will Armenia continue to finance Karabakh Armenians? Here we will understand how sincere Pashinyan and co are in their statements."

Mammadov also touched upon Russia's possible response to the recent events. "What will Russia answer? Activating Russian proxies in Armenia and Karabakh with a different agenda. In Armenia, the maximum result is to overthrow Pashinyan - but how? The minimum plan is to keep Karabakh financing in the Armenian budget and continue recruiting contractors from Armenia to Karabakh. In Karabakh, proxies are already raised to rallies: by the way, this is an interesting move - to demonstrate the unwillingness of Armenians to become citizens of Azerbaijan and to lead the West to statements on the topic of Karabakh Armenians," he said. "In the coming weeks, you can expect Russian activities ahead of the meeting in Brussels. It is clear that the parties will reject the draft text of the peace treaty from Russia, and the work is taking place in a bilateral format. Mentoring behavior of Russia is not acceptable," he added. According to him, Pashinyan is waiting for another challenging week. He will probably demand from the US and EU at least some statements on the rights and security of Karabakh Armenians to show his society that the West will help. "If such statements appear, it will complicate interaction with Azerbaijan. Here, the US can act as a bad cop by making statements on the Armenians of Karabakh, and the EU can act as the good cop that pushes the process of a peace treaty without irritating Baku," he concluded.

Political analyst Tigran Grigoryan said that the announcement of the EU mission was a positive development. "But I think concrete steps will be expected from Armenia during those two months," he added. "Baku is pressing Yerevan to come to a peace agreement more quickly and to resolve the other major outstanding issues between them, like a demarcation of their border and the nature of new transportation routes between them," he concluded.

Andranik Tevanyan, the Member of the National Assembly at the National Assembly of Armenia and Director at the Political Economy Research Institute, said that those who were once in favor of the formula 'Let's hand over Artsakh [the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh] to Azerbaijan and live well/peacefully' now want to live well/ peacefully, handing over Syunik to Azerbaijan. "Nikol's support are these. So far, they have quietly agreed on the last formula, but soon they will shout about it. And so they will reach Yerevan, Gyumri, Vanadzor, living well and peacefully," he added. "These immoral people said three years ago: 'Artsakh is Armenia, and that is it!'. Now they say that Armenia no longer has the opportunity to provide the security of Artsakh, and Armenia takes its hands off Artsakh. They have already started announcing Syunik's handover to give because they are tearing throats on the topic 'Syunik is Armenia and that is it", Tevanyan stated. "An agreement has been reached against the existence of Armenia in Prague. Unfortunately, this is not noticed only by the ordinary citizen of Armenia but also most of the so-called political superiority. There is no consciousness, no perception of the expected disaster," he said.

Turkish MP: "Peoples of Armenia and Turkey Are Not Enemies"

Garo Paylan, Peoples' Democratic Party's (Turkey) Diyarbakır MP, said, "The peoples of Armenia and Turkey are not each other's enemies. They cannot be. These people lived in peace and brotherhood until a hundred years ago. Likewise, the peoples of Azerbaijan and Armenia are not enemies of each other. They cannot. Because these peoples lived side by side and brotherly until only 35 years ago." Paylan called to take responsibility and said, "Now is the time to talk about peace. It is time to take responsibility together. I will take all kinds of responsibility to do my best and even the best I can in this regard." Expressing that Turkey could not act as an arbitrator on the peace of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Paylan said: "The probability of it happening is also low. Because in the war that took place two years ago, Turkey sided with Azerbaijan on one side. He said: 'Can Azerbaijan' [Heart Azerbaijan]. But Armenia is also a country in this region. And the peoples of Armenia and Turkey lived together for hundreds of years. Armenia also Turkey should have been alive. If it had been able to provide this, Turkey could have also played the role of an arbitrator in this peace. But at the moment, it largely sided with Azerbaijan. I see signs of change in this policy as well. After the Erdogan-Pashinyan meeting, both sides discussed the normalization of Turkey-Armenia relations. The leader also showed an important will." Stating that peace should be established in the Caucasus, Paylan said, "We have longed for peace in the Caucasus for decades. There was an opportunity for peace in the Caucasus in 1994 as well. There was an opportunity for peace in 2008-2009, but these peace opportunities were missed. Now there is a new peace for peace. There is an opportunity, a window of opportunity. After long discussions in Prague, the leaders of Turkey and Armenia, Erdogan and Pashinyan, met. Likewise, the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Aliyev and Pashinyan, held a meeting."