Azerbaijan Pivot to Central Asia

| Insights, Azerbaijan

Yunis Sharifli is a Research Assistant at the Middle East Institute. He also works as a Junior Research Fellow at the Caucasian Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies (QAFSAM) and at the Topchubashov Center in Azerbaijan.

Since the Russia-Ukraine war began, there have been increasing interactions between Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries.War ushered in a new political and economic reality in the post-Soviet space, and as a result, Central Asian countries are increasingly important in Azerbaijan's foreign policy for a variety of reasons. Baku pursues proactive diplomacy with Central Asian countries, engaging them not only bilaterally, but also on a trilateral and institutional level.

High-level official meetings were held at the bilateral level between the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the Presidents of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. which attracted particular attention. At these meetings, the parties signed a series of agreements covering different areas of cooperation from the security sector to the political and economic sectors.

In the context of the tripartite level, Azerbaijan played an important role in the creation of two important platforms, namely the Turkey-Azerbaijan-Kazakhstan and Turkey-Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan tripartite platforms. These platforms facilitated Azerbaijan's engagement with two important actors in Central Asia. Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are critical players in terms of their political and economic weight in Central Asia. In addition, both countries are involved in the East-West railroad trade. Kazakhstan is the main gateway country for China-EU rail trade and further develops its potential. Uzbekistan is an emerging transport hub in Central Asia that can play an important role in the Eurasian rail trade.

The trilateral platform helps Azerbaijan coordinate its activities with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in order to improve both hard infrastructure, which covers the construction of railways, ports, and ships and soft infrastructure, which covers reducing tariffs and easing customs, for efficient transportation. In the near future, there is a possibility that Azerbaijan promotes a new trilateral platform with Kyrgyzstan as Turkey-Azerbaijan-Kyrgyzstan or quad literal platform as a Turkey-Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan for improving coordination on logistical issues.

Finally, Baku interacts with Central Asian countries at the institutional level. There are different organizations that have created opportunities, diversified channels, and intensified interaction for both Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries. Especially recently, the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the 6th summit of the Conference on Cooperation and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) played an important role for Baku. Participation at the institutional level may encourage both Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries to discuss political issues during the Russian-Ukrainian war and harmonize their development goals and coordinate their policies in critical areas. 

In this context, particularly, OTS plays a vital role. During the recent Samarkand summit, member countries of OTS focused on improving economic cooperation, transport connectivity, and food security. The recent summit completed the decision taken at the previous Istanbul summit. Establishing the Turkic Investment Fund and adopting the five-year strategy of the organization were the main decisions taken during the summit. In the midst of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, OTS's new decision to deepen economic cooperation opens up new opportunities for Azerbaijan. Interaction at the institutional level with Central Asian countries helps the state find alternative economic resources,strengthen its position as a transportation hub, and gain diplomatic support for its foreign policy priorities, especially in the context of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.

Azerbaijan has various political and economic goals to improve its relations with Central Asian countries. In terms of political reasons, first of all, Baku's engagement with Central Asian countries increases its geopolitical importance, not only for the regional powers but also for the EU and China. Currently, Azerbaijan plays a key role in the East-West rail trade. as Iran and Russia are under Western sanctions, and the stability of both countries looks dubious for international companies. In this context, the South Caucasus emerges as an important region connecting Central Asia. As a result, Azerbaijan's engagement with Central Asian countries and comprehensive strengthening of relations may draw the attention of regional and global powers to Azerbaijan. Baku's relationship with Central Asian countries makes it more important from a strategic point of view, it secures its lands before the great powers, and strengthens its bargaining power against regional and other powers, especially the EU.

Second, due to Russia's attempt to invade Ukraine, post-Soviet countries' concerns about Russia's future aggression are growing. Especially the recent tension between Russia and Kazakhstan further strengthens the concerns of post-Soviet countries. In this context, one of the most important goals of Azerbaijan may be to develop political dialogue and coordination with the Central Asian countries and to engage Russia not only at the bilateral but also at the multilateral level. Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries, especially Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, follow a balanced and multi-vectored foreign policy and a soft balancing strategy that includes a combination of economic, diplomatic, and institutional methods against Russia. At this point, it can be associated with the development of bilateral, trilateral, and institutional relations between Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries, the coordination of policies toward common perception of threat, and the balancing of Russia's pressure on diplomatic paths.

Finally, improving relations with Central Asian countries helps Azerbaijan gain support for its transport diplomacy in the South Caucasus. At present, the opening of the Zangezur Corridor is the main goal of Azerbaijan's transport policy. The Zanzegur Corridor Project is a transportation corridor proposal that will connect Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Region through the territory of Armenia. The opening of the new corridor not only creates a win-win situation for Azerbaijan and Armenia but also creates a new opportunity for the Central Asian countries. Because the new corridor diversifies its alternative routes in the South Caucasus and provides access to stable routes to the European market. Diplomatic support for the Zangezur Corridor from Central Asian countries to Azerbaijan is already visible.During the recent OTS summit in Samarkand, the strategic importance of the Zangezur Corridor for East-West rail trade was also brought up.

In addition to political goals, economic targets also play an important role in Azerbaijan's strategy toward Central Asia. During the President of Azerbaijan’s meeting with the Presidents of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, the sides decided to promote trade turnover and create a new investment fund to upgrade economic relations and appreciate mutual investment opportunities in the long term. Economic cooperation helps both sides diversify their export and import routes, contribute to their economic growth, and use their comparative advantages. Furthermore, increasing interdependency promotes more political cooperation and reduces their vulnerability to external economic shocks.

Secondly, strengthening relations with Central Asian countries helps Baku attract investment in liberated lands and accelerate the development process of these regions. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan have already expressed their interest in investing in the Karabakh region. In this context, Kazakhstan's participation in the reconstruction of the liberated areas with the construction of the Center for the Development of Children's Creativity in Fuzuli can be cited as an example. In addition, the establishment of Turkic Investment Funds under the OTS creates the chance that Azerbaijan may attract investment and accelerate the reconstruction process. The Karabakh region will be a vital region, as it is seen as a common area that can contribute to the convergence of the economies of the member states.

Finally, because Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries are both located in the East-West rail trade, improved relations will help Azerbaijan strengthen its position as an East-West transport hub.In this context, cooperation with Kazakhstan helps Azerbaijan improve the efficiency of the Middle Corridor and attract more cargo from the Northern Corridor, which passes through Russia. Cooperation with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan opens the door to the development of a new route through Eurasia known as the international multimodal route of Asia-Pacific countries, which also includes Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan. In both corridors, Azerbaijan plays a role as a gated country, and this situation increases regional and global powers' interest in investing and promoting the development of Azerbaijan's transport sectors.

Moreover, at the institutional level, Azerbaijan interacts not only bilaterally but also multilaterally with Central Asian nations. This factor creates opportunities to build common transportation areas and improve hard and soft infrastructure. For example, as a result of the OTS summit, member countries declared the simplification and harmonization of trade and customs procedures, among others, as well as to reduce the trade costs and expedite the clearance of goods across the borders of the OTS Member States. This example shows Baku’s active engagement with Central Asian countries at the institutional level, helping it to improve its position as a transportation hub and accelerate solving logistics problems through the East-West rail trade.

In summary, Azerbaijan's recalibration of its Central Asian strategy is mainly due to the changing international environment. Azerbaijan's main goals for Central Asian countries are about maximizing its political and economic interests. It may aim to maintain its politically balanced and multi-vector foreign policy and increase its maneuverability. In terms of economic goals, its objective is to increase trade volume, attract investment in liberated areas, coordinate connectivity policies, and consolidate the country's position as a transportation hub for both regional and global powers.

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