Armenia's Demographic Strategy in Focus as Pashinyan Urges Nuanced Planning
On May 20, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan chaired a consultation focused on Armenia's demographic strategy draft.
Acknowledging the progress made thus far, Prime Minister Pashinyan stressed the need for fruitful discussions leading to actionable conclusions. He emphasized that any strategy, including the demographic one, must be contextualized within broader frameworks. Pashinyan highlighted the interdisciplinary nature of demography, which encompasses population dynamics and living conditions.
Addressing recent political debates, Pashinyan underscored the importance of defining the fundamental principles underpinning the demographic strategy and Armenia's national identity. He delineated two conceptual paradigms: one portraying Armenia as a historical outpost and the other focusing on safeguarding sovereignty, independence, and citizens' well-being.
Pashinyan lamented the oversight of certain factors in discussions on the demographic strategy, such as emigration driven by the desire to avoid military conflict. He emphasized the loss of potential and talent resulting from this phenomenon, advocating for a nuanced approach to strategy formulation.
Presentations followed, outlining progress on various fronts, including demographic forecasting, analysis of displaced populations from Nagorno-Karabakh, and financial assessments. Strategic goals encompassed increasing births, reducing deaths, curbing emigration, and implementing active aging initiatives. Multiple scenarios were considered, including accelerated and inertial trajectories.
The demographic strategy was anticipated to mitigate population aging, foster rejuvenation, bridge generational gaps in socio-economic participation, and enhance Armenia's human development index.
Following an exchange of ideas and observations, Prime Minister Pashinyan instructed officials to compile a comprehensive report summarizing discussions. This report would inform the finalization of the draft strategy for submission to the Government and delineate subsequent actions.
Notably, Armenia's population peaked at nearly 3.7 million in the late 1980s but has declined sharply since gaining independence in 1991. By 2021, the population had decreased to just over 3 million. Estimates suggest that Armenia has lost about 611,000 people since 1991, when it had nearly 3.6 million citizens. Armenia's birthrate has been declining, and the number of deaths now exceeds the number of births. In the first quarter of 2022, deaths registered in Armenia exceeded births by 609 people, marking the first decline since 1998. The aging demographic is another concern. People aged 63 and over constitute about 15% of the country's permanent population. Emigration, particularly to Russia, has significantly affected Armenia's population decline. Amid uncertainty and instability, people seek better opportunities elsewhere and prefer to raise children where they see their future.