On February 21, former Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian expressed concern over the recent shift in U.S. policy toward Ukraine. He warned that, combined with Europe’s growing inability to provide military and financial support, this shift should serve as a serious wake-up call for Armenia.

Oskanian drew parallels between Ukraine and Armenia’s geopolitical trajectories, arguing that both countries have been led by inexperienced leaders who made critical miscalculations, resulting in devastating conflicts. In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s early defiance of Russia secured strong Western backing, but as the war dragged on, support waned due to political shifts in the U.S., economic challenges, and war fatigue in Europe.

Similarly, Oskanian contended that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s miscalculations—particularly after Armenia’s defeat in the 44-day war of 2020—led him to distance the country from Russia while seeking closer ties with the West. This, he argued, contributed to Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh war and Armenia's territorial losses. He stressed that while Western assurances may promise economic and diplomatic backing, they do not always translate into tangible military or security guarantees. Despite Armenia’s efforts to forge new alliances, the country remains largely isolated, while Azerbaijan “continues its aggressive policies unchecked.”

Oskanian cautioned that Armenia risks further alienating its traditional security partner, Russia, without securing a viable alternative. He dismissed the expectation that the West will provide unlimited financial and military support, warning that such assumptions are misguided. He also criticized both Zelenskyy and Pashinyan for what he described as declining popular support, authoritarian tendencies, and mismanagement of national security.

Concluding his remarks, Oskanian called for a strategic reassessment of Armenia’s governance and foreign policy to ensure long-term stability. He argued that a change in leadership is necessary to safeguard Armenia’s future, warning that continued reliance on Western promises without a clear security framework could leave the country even more vulnerable. He emphasized that alliances in geopolitics are driven by strategic necessity rather than moral alignment and urged Armenians to reject Pashinyan’s leadership before Armenia finds itself without allies or options.