According to TBC Capital, one of the major Georgian financial institutions, the economic growth forecast for 2023 will be revised and likely to increase, which will be due to the improvement of tourism expectations and the increase in global economic activity. Earlier, TBC Capital predicted a 3.5% growth of the Georgian economy in 2023.

"Our earlier forecast for the growth of the 2023 economy will be revised in the direction of rise. The arguments include significantly better expectations of tourism, including the effects of migration, revisiting seasonal growth factors that have a substantial impact on the so-called base effect, as well as at least somewhat improved assessments in terms of global economic activity.

In December, a strong dynamic of foreign trade was observed. Especially noteworthy is the recovery of high export growth. It is also positive that according to the data published, the net exchange reserves of the NBG have increased significantly. In addition, we reiterate that during the year, not only the level of influxes and foreign exchange reserves on the GEL rate but also the average GEL rate in relation to the currencies of major trade and economic partners, as well as the expectation of inflation, will be affected. In terms of the average rate, it is noteworthy that the strengthening of the euro continues. Based on past dynamics, it is known that strengthening the euro also leads to strengthening the GEL, although not equally.

However, while further strengthening the euro is precisely the base scenario, it is not in itself possible to develop events internationally in a more stressful scenario, which is already a solid dollar argument. What can we say when taking currency risk in terms of the possible optimal composition of the euro/dollar? It should be noted that our earlier estimates in this regard are largely still in force. The diversification itself seems optimal again, with approximately the structure reflected in the schedule in the full version of the publication.

It is also important that even a relatively small share of GEL in the portfolio is an important argument for both reducing risk in terms of loans and increasing returns in terms of deposits", reads TBC Capital's report.

Despite the increase in recessionary risks around the world, thanks to external factors, last year turned out to be quite successful for Georgia, which many international financial organizations recognize.

According to experts, 2023 will be full of challenges and surprises for the world. The issue of the Russia-Ukraine war is still unresolved, US-China relations are strained, and the West is facing the threat of recession amid record-high inflation and tightened monetary policy.

Despite the relatively difficult global situation, experts and international financial institutions assume that 2023 will bring good results for Georgia. There is a chance that the volume of the country's gross domestic product will increase by an additional 6%.

According to the government's official forecast, according to which the state budget was planned, 5% economic growth is expected this year. The National Bank considers that the most realistic GDP growth by 2023 is 4%.

Different economic growth forecasts by various organizations for Georgia in 2023:

Official government forecast:

+ 5.0%

National Bank of Georgia:

+ 4.0%

International Monetary Fund (IMF):

+ 4.0%

World Bank (WB):

+ 4.0%

Asian Development Bank (ADB):

+ 6.0%

TBC Capital:

+ 3.5%