Armenian Leaders Challenge EAEU Suspension Threat and Address CSTO Status
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan have challenged a report presented on 20 October by Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan on the possible suspension of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) treaty’s application to Armenia. The report examines the compatibility of Armenia’s European integration process with its EAEU commitments and forecasts substantial economic consequences if the other member states suspend the treaty’s application to Armenia. According to Pashinyan, EAEU members another country from the bloc, but they can from the CSTO. A decision to suspend Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) could be considered at the bloc’s December summit. Although the EAEU Treaty does not explicitly outline a procedure for suspending membership, the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties could provide a legal basis for such a move in cases of non-compliance with treaty obligations.
Separately, the leaders of the CSTO states may discuss the issue of Armenia's membership at the Collective Security Council session to be held in Moscow on November 11, the organization's Secretary General Taalatbek Masadikov announced. According to the official, the proposal may be submitted by the chairing country or another member state of the organization. Masadikov explained that, under Article 25 of the CSTO Charter, a country does not have the right to vote if it does not pay membership fees and does not fill the quota positions. According to Article 25 of the CSTO Charter, if a member state fails to fulfill its obligations to the organization's budget, the Council may suspend the right of citizens of that state to nominate quota positions within the CSTO, as well as deprive them of the right to vote in the Organization's bodies until the debt is fully repaid.
As Masadikov , Armenia itself has already de facto withdrawn from the CSTO, while the organization continues to send documents for approval; Yerevan does not participate in their discussion and decision-making, and it does not object to other members making decisions without its participation. "They do not hinder our work; we continue to make decisions. They listen to weekly reports, but do not participate in our main events. In fact, they have already de facto withdrawn from the CSTO," Masadikov said. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan later on a statement suggesting that Armenia could resume active participation in the organisation “in view of the changing international situation”. “I cannot imagine how Armenia would return to the CSTO,” the minister told reporters.
Referring to the report’s forecasts, the Armenian prime minister added, “We will live and see,” saying that Armenia would continue to pursue development, protect its independence and sovereignty, and diversify its relations. Pashinyan also accused unnamed circles in Russia and Armenia of attempting to destabilise the country and undermine its independence. He described the current situation as the third attempt in three years to provoke domestic instability, following the September 2023 displacement of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh and the June 2026 parliamentary elections. Pashinyan argued that Russian restrictions on Armenian products, introduced in April and intensified before the elections, had not produced the intended economic and political consequences. “There is no economic component here; we are dealing with a political component,” he said, alleging that the ultimate aim was to deprive Armenia of its independence. Pashinyan is convinced that even if gas prices rise by 69%, as the EAEU has warned, the Armenian economy will not face an “apocalypse”.
Pashinyan also remarked on longstanding disputes over Armenia’s security relationship with Russia. He noted that personal relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin remained positive but did not erase what he framed as Russia’s failure to deliver weapons Armenia had paid for under contracts signed in 2021. Pashinyan cited Azerbaijani attacks on Armenian territory in 2021 and 2022, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation’s failure to fulfil its treaty obligations, and Azerbaijan’s takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023 despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers. Pashinyan stressed that reliance on one country for weapons, gas and export markets created risks that Armenia needed to manage.
The Armenian government has also pointed to growing trade with the European Union. Papoyan on 21 October that Armenian exports to EU member states rose by 51% year-on-year in January-September, increasing from $475 million to $717 million. According to Papoyan, the EAEU report’s figures were inflated by approximately 50% and estimated the potential contraction in Armenia’s economy at 0.61%. Papoyan has described a potential increase in gas prices as highly undesirable, while that its economic impact, estimated at 5-7%, and the consequences of leaving the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) would be manageable.
In relation to this discussion, Foreign Minister Mirzoyan that the Armenian side was still reviewing the document before formulating its official position and that he was unaware of a legal mechanism allowing other EAEU members to expel it or suspend its membership unilaterally. “Our citizens’ well-being, trade, economic interests and our traditional ties with the Russian Federation and the other EAEU members are important to us,” he said, “but there is something that takes precedence and is more important than anything else: the Republic of Armenia’s sovereignty and independence.”