According to analysts of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), in the first quarter of this year, economic growth in Armenia will be about 11% in annual terms. 

"Economic activity in Armenia increased by 10.9% y/y in January-February. All sectors of the economy made a positive contribution, and the main part of the dynamics was provided by the service sector, which continues to show strong growth (21.2% y / y in February). Compared to the previous month, construction sector turnover accelerated to 13.9% y/y in February from 12.2% y/y a month earlier. At the same time, the trend of a gradual slowdown in economic activity continued in the services and industry sectors, which indicates a gradual stabilization of demand in the country," the study said.

The bank's analysts note that in the first three months of the year, strong dynamics remained in almost all sectors of the Armenian economy. "The service sector showed growth by 23.5% y/y in January-February, 70% of the dynamics was provided by the expansion of the sectors of information and communication and financial activities (by 49.0% y/y and 30.3% y/y, respectively, in January - February). The construction and manufacturing industries also showed strong growth since the beginning of the year. The manufacturing industry in January-February increased by 6.6% y/y, while the mining industry continued to decline (minus 9.6% y/y) due to the suspension of work at the Tegut copper deposit [the second largest in terms of copper and molybdenum reserves in Armenia, after the Kajaran deposit, it is located in the Lori region near the border with Georgia. - Ed.] The volume of completed construction works in January-February increased by 13.2% y/y. This was facilitated by construction financed at the expense of organizations (+9.3% y/y) as well as the population (+15.4% y/y). Almost half of the volume of work in the sector falls on housing construction against the backdrop of high growth rates of mortgage lending (+29.0% y/y)," the Eurasian Development Bank added.

EDB experts noted that Armenian exports continue to outstrip imports in value growth; over the past seven months, export deliveries have almost doubled annually. "In the dynamics of exports of goods (+96.4% y/y in January-February), the main role is played by machinery and equipment, precious stones and metals, and vehicles. In January-February, import volumes increased (+67.4% y/y) in almost all commodity groups and exceeded exports by 1.5 times, and in the same period last year, the excess was almost two times. Maintaining the outstripping growth rates of exports of goods compared to imports contributes, among other things, to the steady strengthening of the Armenian dram," the study stated.

In 2022, Armenia's GDP showed the highest growth among Europe and Central Asia countries - 12.6%. Economic growth in the state budget of the republic for 2023 is provided for in the amount of 7%; inflation is set at 4% (± 1.5%).