Military developments and civilian casualties

On 1 October, the de facto Defence Ministry of Nagorno-Karabakh reported that a relatively stable tense situation remained in the region with shootings from artillery and small arms continuing in some areas. The spokesman of the Armenian Defence Ministry Artsrun Hovhannisyan stated that during the night and morning battles on 1 October, Azerbaijan’s death toll was 350-360. However, the Armenian MOD did not specify the military losses on their side. According to local sources, 11 Armenian civilians in Nagorno-Karabakh were killed and over 60 were wounded so far.

The National Security Service (NSS) of Armenia uncovered a case of high treason (espionage) in favour of Azerbaijan by a former high-ranking military officer, the press centre of the department reported. According to the published information, the person involved as a defendant in the criminal case, while in Georgia’s territory, came to the attention of the Azerbaijani intelligence services operating in that country. He was supposedly recruited by the officers of these special services and received specific assignments to conduct espionage activities that were to the detriment of the external security of the Republic of Armenia. The task was to obtain information about external security and the armed forces and armament of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. He was to transfer range of information, including about the personnel of the army, weapons, ammunition, the number and types of military equipment, military units and their command personnel, defence zones, engineering structures, equipment and more.

The Armenian media also reported that two journalists of the French newspaper Le Monde were injured during the clashes. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded by stating that purposefully bringing foreign journalists to a dangerous area clearly shows that Armenian government ignores its obligations to ensure the safety of journalists and uses foreign journalists for its illegal provocative purposes. “Appealing to foreign journalists, we seriously recommend [they]… obtain the consent of the Azerbaijani side in connection with [visits]… to the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh of Azerbaijan and adjacent regions,” said the Azerbaijani MFA.

The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence stated that disinformation is being spread about the safety of that the civilians living in Hadrut and Khojavend (Mardakert) settlements. It was reported that two Azerbaijani civilians were killed as a result of the shelling by Armenian forces in the Aghdam district. In terms of destroyed equipment, the MOD reported that 200 tanks and other armoured equipment, 228 artillery cannons, multiple rocket launchers, mortar launchers, 300 units of air defence systems, 6 command operation and command observation posts, 5 weapon and ammunition storehouses, over 110 units of automotive equipment and 1 unit of S-300 anti-missile and anti-aircraft systems were destroyed. The MOD also refuted the information that an Azerbaijani plane was shot down by the Armenian forces and that it landed in Iran.

Speaking to the press, the assistant to Azerbaijan’s President Hikmet Hajiyev noted that as a result of deliberate and targeted artillery shelling of settlements by the Armenian armed forces, 17 civilians including 2 children were killed, 51 people were injured and that public and private property were damaged. He added that during 1 October, the territory of Azerbaijan was subjected to rocket fire from the direction of Gorus region of Armenia. However, the number of military casualties was not specified by the Azerbaijani authorities. 

Political developments

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan posted the following on his Facebook page: “Armenia and the Armenians in the South Caucasus are the ultimate obstacle for Turkey to continue to expand towards the north, southeast and east and turn its dream of being an empire into a reality. This is not just the Karabakh issue or the issue of security of the Armenian people. It is now a matter of international security, and the Armenian people are also protecting international security by assuming perhaps a new historical mission.” 

The spokesperson of Azerbaijan’s MFA Leyla Abdullayeva called Armenia’s allegations that Azerbaijan uses Syrian militants as a simple smear campaign. “The aim of this smear campaign is to attempt to compensate for the negative international public opinion created by Armenia's recent relocation, in a demonstrative way, of representatives of terrorist organisations from the Middle East to the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, which is a gross violation of international humanitarian law. There are numerous facts on the use of terrorist groups and mercenaries in military operations during the occupation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding regions of Azerbaijan by Armenia. Armenia's plan to create "voluntary militant groups" to be used for military purposes is aimed at using the "services" of terrorists who have been moved to Armenia from the Middle East for years,” she stated.

International reactions

The Presidents of Russia, the United States and France, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron, respectively, representing the co-chairing countries of the OSCE Minsk Group, within the framework for the negotiations on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict made a joint statement. “We mourn the victims and express our condolences to the families of those killed and wounded. We call for an immediate cessation of hostilities between the armed forces of the parties involved. We also call on the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to immediately undertake commitments in good faith and without setting preconditions to resume negotiations on the essence of the settlement with the assistance of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs,” the statement read.

French President Emmanuel Macron has said he is sure Syrian fighters were operating in Nagorno-Karabakh, where Armenia and Azerbaijan are engaged in heavy fighting. Macron said he has evidence that fighters have travelled through the Turkish city of Gaziantep on their way to the conflict in the South Caucasus, where the fiercest clashes in years have killed nearly 130 people.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan commented on the statement of the OSCE Minsk Group states. “It is unacceptable that they are in search of a ceasefire in the face of what is happening. Yes, if something is desired, then the occupiers must leave those lands in order to achieve results. Our Azerbaijani brothers want to return to their lands, they miss it. I have discussed this with both Mr. Putin and Mr. Macron. But they always sat and talked, but to no avail. Now is the time for results. The behaviour demonstrated today by those who were deaf, blind and dumb during the occupation of Karabakh, the land of ancient Azerbaijan by the Armenians and the massacres of the civilian population, is hypocrisy,” he stated.

“The way to sustainable peace in this region is through the withdrawal of Armenia from every inch of occupied Azerbaijani lands. Putting everything aside and trying to slander Turkey will not save the Armenian government. I warn those who support this bandit state that they will be held accountable before the conscience of mankind. May my Allah bless and protect our Azerbaijani brothers!" Erdogan added.

It should be noted that the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held phone talks with Armenian (Zohrab Mnatsaknyan), Azerbaijani (Jehyun Bayramov), and Turkish counterparts (Mevlut Cavusoglu).  

The Secretary General of the Council of Europe, Marija Pejčinović Burić said that a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict must be found at the negotiating table to prevent a grave humanitarian crisis.

The Iranian Presidential Chief of Staff Mahmoud Vaezi held a phone conversation with Azerbaijan’s Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev. Vaezi voiced his concern over the Azerbaijan-Armenia clashes, saying Iran is monitoring the developments closely. “We are ready to help in resolving the dispute between the two countries through dialogue and negotiation within the framework of law and regulations of international law,” he stated. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh rebuffed the allegations that Iran was used as a transit route for military equipment to Armenia,  saying the transit of conventional non-military items through Iran to neighbouring countries has always been underway. “The mentioned trucks are crossing Iran simply within the same framework,” he said “The Islamic Republic of Iran carefully monitors and controls the trend of transportation and transit of commodities to other countries [via its soil] and does not allow our country’s soil to be used for the transfer of arms and ammunition whatsoever,” he added.