As Caucasus Watch has already reported, Russian President Vladimir Putin has banned all Russian airlines from flying to Georgia on 21 June. The order, which will come into effect on 8 July, is due to recent tensions between Georgia and Russia in the face of ongoing protests in Tbilisi. In addition, tour operators in Russia were strongly advised not to sell travel packages to Georgia anymore. The Georgian airlines will no longer be allowed to fly to Russia from 8 July 2019 onward.

As a result, Russia's leadership may have hit a nerve in Georgia, which relies heavily on the development of its tourism potential. Russians are one of the largest tourist groups in the country. According to the Georgian authorities’ official data, in 2018 4.8 million tourists visited the country. Most tourists came from Azerbaijan (1.4 million), Russia (1.4 million) and Armenia (1.3 million). If the Russian tourists were actually prevented from traveling to Georgia, the Georgian tourism market would have to reckon with noticeable losses. Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili's recent statement that the political differences between Tbilisi and Moscow should not negatively affect the flow of tourists at the beginning of the holiday seasons points to some concerns of the Georgian government about such a scenario.

Politics determines vacation destinations

The fact that the Russian authorities can effectively control the flow of Russian tourists with the necessary political will was demonstrated through the Turkish case in 2016. Following the downing of a Russian SU-24 by Turkey in November 2015, Moscow had, among other things, played the "tourist card" and prohibited all charter flights between Russia and Turkey. As a result, the number of Russian tourists fell from 3.44 million in 2015 to only 860,000 in 2016. The number of Russian tourists could have been dropped even lower, if Russia and Turkey would not have reconciled in the following year 2016. The charter flights resumed on 30 June 2016. As early as 2017, the number of Russian tourists in Turkey rose to 4.7 million again.

Whether the Russian measures would hit the Georgian tourism sector as hard as in the case of Turkey remains to be seen. For 80% of Russian visitors traveled by car to Georgia in 2018, not by plane. Last year, only 280,000 Russians had reached Georgia by plane, about half of whom can be described as tourists, as they have spent more than 24 hours in the country.

The Russian newspaper "Komsomolskaya Pravda" calculated how much money Georgia could actually lose due to the flight bans imposed by Russia. On average, a visitor to Georgia spent $ 324. If one expects the number of Russian visitors who fly to Georgia to reach 400,000 this year (given the projected growth of Russian visitors to Georgia in 2019, the newspaper considers this number to be realistic), then an annual amount of approx $ 130 million could be lost. This in turn would make up about 0.8% of the Georgian gross domestic product. The Deputy CEO of the TBC Bank estimates that Georgia could lose up to 1.5% of its GDP growth until 2020.

However, for the remaining 80% of Russian tourists who reach Georgia by car, one should not ignore the power of the Russian media affiliated with the state. They have already launched an information campaign against Georgia, apparently to affect Georgia's tourist appeal for Russian citizens. Russian-Georgian traffic is running smoothly according to recent reports. It also seems unlikely that there will be major problems along the route, as Moscow's close ally, Armenia, is only connected to Russia via Georgia.

Does Russia have further leverage to increase pressure on Georgia?

Indeed, Moscow could take further economic sanctions against Georgia should the Kremlin come to the conclusion that it wants to continue pressuring Georgia. In the first quarter of 2019, over 68% of Georgian wine exports went to Russia. According to "Komsomolskaya Pravda", Georgia's income from wine exports to Russia this year could amount to approximately $ 210 million (1.2% of GDP).

In total, Georgia sold goods and commodities to Russia worth $ 400 million last year. There has already been a call for further sanctions against Georgia by a deputy affiliated with the government, the chairman of the party “A More Just Russia”, Sergei Mironov. The Russian officials have not commented on the proposal so far.