Military developments

On 27 October, the de facto Defence Ministry (MOD) of Nagorno-Karabakh reported that during the night, a relatively stable-tense situation remained on the frontline, adding that an uneasy situation was recorded in the upper sub-region of Askeran.

The spokesperson of Armenia’s MOD Shushan Stepanyan stated that Azerbaijani forces fired at the Armenian border outpost positions located on the southern border of the country with Iran. Stepanyan said they used drones, artillery and missile weapons and that Armenian border forces resorted to preventive actions. Azerbaijan’s MOD refuted this information. Afterwards, it was reported that the town of Lachin and the city of Martuni succumbed to artillery fire, injuring 3 civilians. 

The Azerbaijani MOD reported that combat operations continued mainly in the Khojavend/Martuni, Fizuli and Gubadli areas of the front. In addition it was reported that the districts of Goranboy, Terter and Barda were shelled by Armenian armed forces with intensive missiles and heavy artillery from different directions, killing 4 civilians and injuring 7 in Barda. 

The Azerbaijani MOD and State Border Service issued a joint statement in regard to the current conflict situation. “The Armenian leadership must now realise and reckon that the restored state borders are not a zone of conflict, but state borders recognised by the international community, which define the full sovereign territories of Azerbaijan. The inviolability of the state border must be ensured. Any provocation in this direction is assessed as an attack on our territorial integrity. In this regard, Azerbaijan has the right to destroy any legitimate military targets that threaten its territory, regardless of its location,” the statement read.

An official from Armenia’s Investigative Committee Rafael Vardanyan stated that seventeen Armenian servicemen are being held captive by Azerbaijan. He did not say how many Azerbaijani soldiers are held captive in Armenia but noted that two were interrogated. He added that all the requirements of humanitarian law were followed. Meanwhile, the Secretary of Azerbaijan’s State Commission on Prisoners of War Ismayil Akhundov stated that Armenia does not want to take the bodies of servicemen and citizens who were kept in Azerbaijan.

Political developments

The de facto President of Nagorno-Karabakh Arayik Harutyunyan signed a decree dismissing Lieutenant General Jalal Harutyunyan as the territory’s de facto defence minister and commander of the Defence Army. By another decree, Major General Mikael Arzumanyan was appointed as the new de facto defence minister of Nagorno-Karabakh. On his Facebook page Harutyunyan explained that the decision to discharge Jalal Harutyunyan of his duties is a necessity and is conditioned by the injury he received during the battles.

However, the Azerbaijani media reported that Jalal Harutunyan was liquidated by the Azerbaijany army in cooperation with the country’s special services. According to the Azerbaijani reports, Harutyunyan's service car was discovered and taken under surveillance. Constant outdoor surveillance was carried out by means of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). After making sure that Harutyunyan was in the car and was going to one of the combat positions, the car was hit from an operational-tactical medium-altitude UAV. A video footage also released showing how the vehicle was hit by the UAV.  

It was also reported that the head of the counterintelligence department of the National Security Service (NSS) of Armenia, Major General Hovhannes Karumyan and the chief of staff of the border troops of the NSS Gagik Tevosyan were relieved of their posts. In addition, checkpoints have been set up in Armenia against possible penetration of spies and raiders sections in the Ararat, Gegharkunik, Vayots Dzor and Syunik regions.

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addressed the nation. In his address he pointed out at the current situation in the conflict. “Azerbaijan still isn’t ready for mutual concessions, and this internationally legitimizes the right of the Armenian people to fight until the end, shape victories and enjoy them. Armenians are a victorious nation. Go and achieve your victory. Stand and shape your victory, and be certain that your elected government has always shown and will continue to show you the road to victory,” he stated. 

The Assistant to Azerbaijan’s President Hikmet Hajiyev stated that Azerbaijani authorities would provide support to the civilian population of Nagorno-Karabakh and the servicemen who would lay down their arms. He stressed that the Azerbaijani army doesn’t deal with the civilian population of Nagorno-Karabakh.

In an interview with National Defence magazine, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Jehyun Bayramov spoke about the current negotiation process of the conflict. He stressed that Azerbaijan’s main goal is to put an end to the occupation of Azerbaijani territories and restore the country’s territorial integrity. “Unfortunately, up till now we have not seen any constructive approach from the Armenian side. Armenia rejected the UN Security Council’s resolutions, decisions of the OSCE and other organisations. The Armenian leadership dragged out the negotiation process by hook or by crook, abandoning the agreements already reached at the negotiating table and arranging regular armed provocations in the conflict zone. Such affairs could not last forever," Bayramov continued.   

Bayramov emphasised that if Armenia recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state, that would be ‘the final nail in the coffin’ of the current negotiating format for the resolution of the conflict with the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs and that this would lead to a further escalation of the conflict. "If the Armenian leadership really wants peace, then let it begin to withdraw its troops from the occupied Azerbaijani territories,"  he concluded.

The Assistant to Russia’s President Dmitry Peskov commented on the issue of Turkey’s alleged involvement in the conflict. “As far as the participation of third countries in the existing settlement formats is concerned, it depends entirely on the political will of the parties to the conflict. There are two of them - Azerbaijan and Armenia. Participating in the conflict’s settlement, playing the role of a go-between or being involved in the formats in any other way will be possible only on the condition of consent from both parties,” he told the journalists.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Said Khatibzadeh announced that the country’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that he would visit Moscow, Baku, Yerevan and Ankara to promote an Iranian initiative to resolve the conflict. The details of the initiative have not yet been announced.