Military developments prior to the agreement

On 9 October, the de facto Ministry of Defence (MOD) of the internationally non-recognized Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh reported that during the night, the situation on the front was tense and relatively stable. “The operational-tactical situation has remained unchanged. In some sectors of the frontline, shootings and artillery battles continued. The enemy also inflicted rocket and artillery strikes on peaceful settlements,” the report added.

On the other hand, the Azerbaijani MOD reported that in the afternoon of 8 October and the morning of 9 October, fierce battles continued along the entire length of the front line. The MOD also reported that Armenian forces fired at the territories of Goranboy, Terter and Agdam districts. Later the MOD reported that the territories of the Mingachevir and Aghjabedi regions were subjected to shelling. The de facto Nagorno-Karabakh MOD refuted this information. 

It was also reported that the Azerbaijani army had taken the Hadrut settlement, alongside the surrounding villages of Chayli, Yukhari Guzlak, Gorazili, Gishlag, Garajali, Afandilar, Sur and Suleymanli.

Political developments prior to the agreement

After a series of telephone conversations with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the Russian President Vladimir Putin called for an end to hostilities in order to exchange bodies of the dead and prisoners. The Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan (Jeyhun Bayramov) and Armenia (Zohrab Mnatsaknyan) accepted Moscow’s invitation to go to Russian and hold consultations on these issues through the mediation of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.  

While speaking at the meeting of Prime Ministers of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Pashinyan said that the talks in Moscow would only focus only on cessation of hostilities, the exchange of bodies of soldiers killed in the fighting and captives.  

In an interview with the French TV channel TV5Monde, Pashinyan stated that he expects France to recognise the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. “I can say frankly that I expect the French President Emmanuel Macron and France to recognise the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, since today there is no other option to solve the concerns raised by Macron, because this can lead to a huge humanitarian disaster,” he said.

The Armenian government made a decision amending the law on the legal regime of martial law. In accordance with the amendments made, actions that criticise, refute, cast doubt on the effectiveness or in any way devalue the actions of state bodies and local self-government bodies and officials ensuring the legal regime of martial law and ensure state security (including speeches, publications) were prohibited. Campaigning against the defence capability and security of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh was also prohibited, including the dissemination of publications that cast doubt on the defence capability of Armenia. It was indicated that the Armenian Police are authorized to take the necessary measures to ensure the removal of published messages and publications, to temporarily seize or arrest printing devices, broadcasting, sound-amplifying technical equipment and copying machines. 

The spokesperson of Azerbaijan’s President Hikmet Hajiyev stated that Azerbaijan was subjected to pressure from several states during the hostilities. “Despite our fair fight, propaganda is being conducted against our country. But we are ready to resist each of them,” he added. Hajiyev also called the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Moscow as “the first contact” and said that through ongoing discussions it is possible “to come to the resolution of the conflict,” but that “everything will depend on the discussions.”

The spokesperson of Turkey’s President Ibrahim Kalın said that a roadmap would be necessary to establish an effective cease-fire in the conflict. “Attempts at a cease-fire in the Nagorno-Karabakh region must be combined with a clear road map to end Armenian occupation,” Kalin said. He noted that Turkey supports a diplomatic solution and has called on the OSCE Minsk Group to come up with a timetable containing a guideline to not only end hostilities but also end the occupation of Azerbaijani lands by Armenia.

The ceasefire agreement

The agreed upon ceasefire agreement between Armenia’s Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and his Azerbaijani counterpart Jehyun Bayramov, under Russian mediation,  was declared to begin on 10 October at 12:00 with the humanitarian aim of exchanging prisoners of war and other captured persons. This was to also allow for the exchange bodies of victims with the facilitation of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and in line with its regulations. The document also stated that Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to begin “substantial talks” with the mediation of OSCE Minsk Group representatives on the peace settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh. The statement added that all involved parties have confirmed their adherence to the invariability of the negotiating process.

However, Mnatsakanyan later described the talks as “rather difficult” and said Armenia wanted Nagorno-Karabakh to be recognised internationally as an independent state. The de facto Karabakh officials echoed this call and accused Azerbaijan of using ceasefire talks as cover to prepare fresh attacks. 

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev stated that the agreement completely met the interests of his country. “The document adopted in Moscow fully meets our interests. First of all, because it provides for the exchange of prisoners and collection of the bodies of dead soldiers, which the Azerbaijani side wanted from the very beginning, but Armenia objected,” he stressed.

The ICRC stated that it would not supervise the operations agreed between Armenia and Azerbaijan until the safety of its teams would be guaranteed. 

Developments after the ceasefire agreement

On 2 AM on 11 October, a day after the ceasefire agreement was reached, Ganja, the second largest city of Azerbaijan, was subjected to rocket shelling. As a result, 10 people died and 35 people were wounded. There was also damage to over 10 apartment buildings and over 100 facilities that were used for various purposes. “The perpetrator of the Ganja attack is the military-political leadership of Armenia. To our information, the decision to attack Ganja was personally made by Pashinyan,” stated Aliyev.

Following the attack on Ganja, the assistant to Azerbaijan’s President Hikmet Hajiyev organised visits to Ganja and Mingachevir for the heads of foreign diplomatic corps, military attaches and representatives of international organisations in Azerbaijan. The purpose of the visits was to get acquainted with scenes caused by the rocket attacks against civilians and energy infrastructures. “Pashinyan and David Tonoyan's [Armenia’s Defence Minister] war crimes against civilians in Ganja and critical energy infrastructure in Mingachevir were exposed to the diplomatic community. It can't be denied by Armenia any longer. [I] hope Pashinyan and his entourage will end up in the War Crimes Tribunal,” Hajiyev stated after the visits.

Besides the attack on Ganja, the Azerbaijani MOD reported that the territories of the Goranboy, Terter and Aghdam regions also succumbed to shelling attacks. On the other hand, the press secretary of the de facto MOD of Nagorno-Karabakh Vahram Poghosyan reported that a large-scale operation continued in the direction of Hadrut. 

In terms of casualties, Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General reported that 41 civilians have died and 207 people have been injured since the beginning of the conflict, with no official reports of military casualties. On the Armenian side, the Armenian and de facto Nagorno-Karabakh MOD’s reported that 430 servicemen have been killed and several hundred have been wounded. The two MODs have also stated that 25 civilians have been killed and over 100 wounded.  

Meanwhile, Armenia's Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan will hold consultations in Moscow with representatives of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs and Lavrov regarding the situation.