Military developments

On 13 October, the spokesperson of Armenia’s Defence Ministry (MOD) Shushan Stepanyan reported that in the morning, Azerbaijani Armed Forces resumed operations in the southern, northern, north-eastern and eastern directions accompanied by active rocket and artillery fire. Stepanyan added that special activity is observed in the north-eastern direction of the front. 

The Azerbaijani MOD reported that the Armenian armed forces shelled the territories of the Goranboy, Terter, Agjabedi and Aghdam regions. It also added that on the night of 12-13 October the general situation on the front line in the Agdera-Agdam and Fizuli-Hadrut directions remained tense. 

From the Armenian side, it was reported that 532 soldiers and 31 civilians have been killed since the beginning of the fighting. The Office of the Chief Prosecutor of Azerbaijan announced that since the renewed fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh began, 42 civilians have been killed and 206 injured.  

Political developments 

The Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan stressed during his meeting with the OSCE Minsk-Group co-chairs in Moscow,  that despite the joint statement at the ministerial level on a ceasefire starting 10 October, Azerbaijan still does not fulfil its obligations. Mnatsakanyan said that Azerbaijan continues large-scale military operations and deliberate strikes against civilians and infrastructure. He emphasised the need to introduce verification systems on the ground as an important factor in the ceasefire and all parties’ adherence.

The Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to Mnatsaknyan’s statements. “Azerbaijan declared its commitment to the humanitarian ceasefire agreed upon at the meeting and instructed its Armed Forces accordingly. Armenia, however, chose a very different path. Its armed forces opened mortar fire at the Azerbaijani medical team collecting bodies of Armenian military personnel in the vicinity of Suqovushan, Tartar district of Azerbaijan. As a result, Azerbaijani medical personnel were wounded heavily. Furthermore, at 2 am on 11 October armed forces of Armenia launched a ballistic missile on Ganja, Azerbaijan’s second largest city. The missile hit and destroyed a multi-floor residential building. 10 civilians were killed and many more injured, including children,” the statement read.

“The final statement of the Moscow meeting reaffirmed the commitment to the existing negotiation format and envisaged the start of substantive talks upon the basic principles. Azerbaijan declared its readiness to engage in the talks at the earliest. In its turn, Armenia immediately started issuing statements, which reflected a one-sided and inaccurate interpretation of the Moscow meeting statement, repeating slogans of self-determination and recognition of the illegal regime established by Armenia in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan finds such an approach to be completely non-constructive, as it violates the letter and spirit of the norms and principles of international law, the UNSC resolutions, OSCE decisions, as well as provisions of the Moscow meeting statement,” the statement added.

Parallel to Mnatsakanyan’s meeting in Moscow, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan hosted the heads of foreign diplomatic missions and international organisations in Yerevan to provide them with the details of the conflict. Pashinyan said that this war would not have started had there not been full readiness shown by and full engagement of Turkey. He added that the situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone is very close to a humanitarian crisis or perhaps it is already facing a humanitarian crisis. “Our assessment is that this humanitarian crisis can be prevented in only one effective way: if the international community officially acknowledges the aforementioned facts and eventually recognises the right of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh to self-determination, to the point of even recognising the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh,' Pashinyan emphasised. 

Meanwhile, the de-facto Nagorno-Karabakh parliament passed a bill which prompted the need to introduce and organise a volunteer militia system. “The bill defines the concept of militia, goals, structure, order of formation, relations associated with training in peacetime and wartime, subordination, leadership and management of the collection of militias,” the statement read. According to the de facto President of the non-recognized republic, Arayik Harutyunyan, the bill would also allow volunteers coming from a "world power" (probably Russia) to fight against Azerbaijan. 

International reactions

The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs called on Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to take immediate steps to execute in full the obligations of the sides according to the 10 October Moscow statement, in order to prevent catastrophic consequences for the region. “The Co-Chairs reiterate that civilian casualties are unacceptable under any circumstances. The Co-Chairs call on the sides to implement the humanitarian ceasefire immediately to allow the return of remains, prisoners of war, and detainees, and appeal to the sides to agree urgently upon a ceasefire verification mechanism. Following conversations with Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, the Co-Chairs are working with the sides on the substantive issues of the Nagorno-Karabakh political settlement process in order to reach a negotiated solution,” the statement read.

The Russian MOD also released a statement in regard to the ongoing hostilities. “The Russian MOD, within its abilities, takes an active part in the implementation of the initiatives… for the earliest possible stabilisation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh,” the Ministry said to journalists. Reporters were also told that Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu “‘held talks with his colleagues from various countries’ on the ‘immediate cessation of hostilities.’” The Russian MOD also emphasised that it was “especially concerned about the presence of ‘terrorist groups from the Middle East’” in the fighting. Sergei Shoigu reportedly spoke about the issue with his Turkish counterpart the day before.  

The World Health Organization (WHO) also released a statement on the conflict in the face of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. “As we have been repeatedly saying, Covid-19 does not respect borders or lines,” WHO spokesman Tarik Jasarevic said at a press conference. “The mobilisation of troops for conflict, the displacement of populations because of it all, adds to the ability of the virus to take hold." He added that the fighting has disrupted already stretched healthcare systems and both countries have seen increases in virus transmission and that the organisation would continue to support virus responses in countries and is expanding its operations to tackle increasing health needs.