Military developments

On 7 October, the spokesperson of Armenia’s Defence Ministry (MOD) Artsrun Hovhannisyan stated that during yesterday night and the morning of 7 October, fighting continued. 

He also said that Azerbaijan is accumulating forces in the Araks River’s valley to carry out military operations. In this regard, the Armenian MOD called on the Iranian MOD to follow the Azerbaijani troops’ actions and not allow them to cross the river. According to him, in the northern direction, the units of the de facto Defence Army of Nagorno-Karabakh also had significant advances and important positional improvements. “In general, battles continue in all directions… Our troops continue to confidently win victories on different fronts. The battles are difficult, heavy, the enemy uses large strength and technique,” Hovhannisyan added. 

Another spokesperson of the Armenian MOD, Shushan Stepanyan announced the improvement of the positions of the defence army in Karabakh. She reported that as a result of the counterattack in the northern direction, the Varangatag (Lulasaz) height was returned. It was also reported both from the Armenian and the  de facto Nagorno-Karabakh MOD that 80 of their servicemen lost their lives today, bringing the casualties beyond 300 lost servicemen. In addition, the MODs reported that so far about 400 tanks and armoured vehicles, 4 Smerch and Uragan multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), 3 TOS-1A MLRS, as well as 124 UAVs, 14 helicopters and 17 warplanes from the Azerbaijani army were destroyed. In terms of civilian casualties, it was reported that 21 died and 82 were wounded during the conflict.

The Azerbaijani MOD reported that Armenian armed forces were shelling villages in the Terter, Barda, Aghdam, Aghjabadi, Fizuli, and Jabrayil regions. It was also reported that one civilian died during the shelling of the Aghdam region. In addition, the Azerbaijani MOD reported that the Armenian side tried to strike at the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Armenian MOD refuted this information. The MOD also reported that since the conflict’s renewal, it has destroyed up to 250 tanks and other armoured vehicles; 270 artillery pieces, multiple launch rocket systems, and mortars; 60 Air Defence means; 11 command-control and command-observation posts; 8 ammunition depots; 150 vehicles; and  1 S-300 anti-aircraft missile system. 

Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General Kamran Aliyev stated that up to today, 28 civilians have died and another 144 people have received bodily injuries of varying degrees. In addition, 66 civilian objects and 427 residential buildings have become unusable as a result of shelling. Kamran Aliyev also revealed that 6 companies were engaged in illegal business activities during the conflict, including operations such as illegal mining in the territories of Nagorno-Karabakh, exploitation of gold and other metal ore deposits, sturgeon and black caviar sales, electricity production, illegal sale of watches, and banking activities. It was reported that these companies received compensation in the amount of 306,821,000 manats and that 12 people were put on the wanted list. In addition, there were grounds for suspicion that a group of individuals have been in the territories of Nagorno-Karabakh since 2002 and looted objects of historical, scientific, and cultural value, and committed other illegal acts by conducting archaeological excavations in the Azykh Cave. 

Political developments

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gave an interview to Sky News. He said that the situation is becoming a “struggle against international terrorism” for Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. He added that he faces an intractable problem which long predates his time in office, and with rumours of Syrian mercenaries coming to join the fighting, he called the latest explosion of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan a civilizational issue. In terms of the negotiation process, Pashinyan said that the de facto Nagorno-Karabakh authorities and Armenia are ready to make concessions just as much as Azerbaijan is ready to make concessions. Nagorno-Karabakh’s de Facto President Arayik Harutyunyan made a call to form an international anti-terrorist coalition. 

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev held an interview with Channel One. He said that the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh should not go beyond the borders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, emphasising that the conflict does not even extend to the territory of Armenia. He added that Azerbaijan will return to the negotiating table when the phase of military confrontation ends. Aliyev also said that Armenia is making attempts to internationalise the conflict by dragging the CSTO and the European countries into the confrontation.

He also noted that the political settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should be backed by guarantees from the world's leading countries, while their composition may not be limited to the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France and the United States. “If we talk about peace, first of all I see it as a political settlement, which would be comprehensive, which would be long-term, eternal with serious guarantees from the leading countries, those countries that will be acceptable to both Azerbaijan and Armenia,” he said.

International reactions

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said in an interview with Rossiya-24 that Russia would honour its obligation to Armenia as a CSTO member state and intervene in the conflict if Armenia is being attacked, but for the time being military operations are not conducted on the territory of Armenia. “The events in Karabakh are a tragedy, we are very worried, because Azerbaijan, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh are territories where [the] people are not strangers to us,” he said, calling a ceasefire in Karabakh as soon as possible.

During the hearings in the European Parliament on the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, the head of the EU’s foreign policy service, Josep Borrell, said that in the conditions of the conflict’s escalation, it is possible that regional players will be drawn into it. “This can seriously undermine the stability of the region. I discussed this situation with the Russian Foreign Minister, I also discussed this situation with the Turkish Foreign Minister – two key regional players, stressing the need for regional powers to refrain from rhetoric and actions that could fuel a conflict,” he said. 

In an interview with the Italian news agency Agenzia Nova, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stressed that “the only viable solution to the conflict [is]… the total withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied Azerbaijani territories in line with the international law.” He noted that more is needed than just another cease-fire, calling for "a clear call on Armenia to abandon its expansionism.” “If Armenia chooses to become a constructive, responsible partner for peace in the region, including with Azerbaijan, it has a lot to gain,” he said. 

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani stated that “respect should be shown to the rights of the Azerbaijani people” and that Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity should be ensured, but the conflict can’t be solved in a military manner.