The second ceasefire agreement and the developments that led to it 

On 17 October, a new ceasefire agreement was agreed between Armenia and Azerbaijan on a humanitarian truce after 21 days of military hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh. The announcements came after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke by phone with his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts Zohrab Mnatsaknyan and Jehyun Bayramov. Lavrov and French President Emmanuel Macron both stressed that the cease-fire must be strictly observed by both sides. 

Prior to the agreement, Azerbaijan’s second largest city of Ganja was succumbed to another missile attack, where 13 civilians were killed, 50 wounded and 20 buildings destroyed. Azerbaijan’s Defence Ministry (MOD) said that the cities of Ganja and Mingachevir were hit with missiles fired from two locations in Armenia. Prior to the attack on Ganja, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev announced that Armenian Armed Forces had been removed from the city of Fizuli and several other settlements. 

The UN Secretary-General condemned “all attacks on populated areas” in and around the Nagorno-Karabakh zone of conflict, as Armenia and Azerbaijan reportedly accused each other of violating the latest humanitarian ceasefire agreement. In a statement released by his spokesperson, António Guterres described the “tragic loss of civilian lives, including children, from the latest reported strike on 16 October” on Azerbaijan’s second largest city of Ganja, as “totally unacceptable”.

The Armenian Defence ministry accused Azerbaijan of continuing to shell populated areas in Nagorno-Karabakh, including its largest city, Stepanakert/Khankendi, reporting of 3 injured civilians. Armenia also accused Azerbaijan of flying drones over Armenian settlements, attacking military installations and damaging civilian infrastructure.

Latest military developments

Hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh continued despite the second ceasefire agreement. Artsrun Hovhannisyan, a spokesman for Armenia's MOD, told the press at a briefing late on 18 October that hostilities continued in the northern and southern front lines since early morning. He also mentioned that Azerbaijani troops were attempting to attack in the southern direction. On 19 October, the Armenian MOD reported shelling in the north and south of Nagorno-Karabakh. 

The Azerbaijani MOD reported shelling in Goygol, Terter and Aghdam regions from the direction of the Kalbajar region, with 4 people injured in the process. The press service of the General Prosecutor's Office of Azerbaijan said that Armenia's military targeted crude oil and condensate pipelines in the Khizi district of Azerbaijan, applying methods that could cause significant damages. The Armenian MOD denied these reports.  

Meanwhile, Aliyev announced that the Azerbaijani army took over thirteen more settlements in the Jabrayil district, including Soltanli, Amirvarli, Mashanli, Hasanli, Alikeykhanli, Gumlag, Hajili, Goyarchinveysalli, Niyazgullar, Kechal Mammadli, Shahvalli, Haji Ismayilli and Isagli.

Political developments 

In an interview with Russian news agency TASS, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that he was ready to travel to Moscow to meet with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. “The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should be resolved exclusively by peaceful means; this is our position. Unfortunately, Azerbaijan does not agree with this point of view. And I am ready to make all the necessary efforts to achieve such a result, including going, meeting, talking,” he said. Pashinyan called for the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence on his official twitter page. “Karabakh has never been part of independent Azerbaijan and the territorial claims of the latter are not substantiated by international law. Prevent genocide, recognize Nagorno-Karabakh,” he wrote.

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev also announced his readiness to meet Nikol Pashinyan. “We are always ready to meet in Moscow and anywhere else to put an end to the confrontation and find ways of settlement. We also want peace, but unlike Armenia, we also want territories that rightfully belong to us,” Aliyev said. 

The Assistant of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hajiyev held a briefing for representatives of diplomatic corps at the ADA University, where he touched on a variety of topics related to the ongoing conflict. He stressed that the Azerbaijani Army does not carry out attacks against civilians. He noted that 2-3 missile units used against Tartar and other cities of Azerbaijan had been placed in Stepanakert/Khankendi. Hajiyev also spoke about the ammunition deliveries to Armenia, stating that the companies who deliver those weapons are situated in Europe. He also emphasised that the Azerbaijani community was ready to live with a population of Armenian origin in Nagorno-Karabakh. “Unfortunately, the Armenian side denied even the existence of the Azerbaijani community. We call on the Armenian side once more to take a step in the direction of a dialogue of Armenian and Azerbaijani communities,” he added. 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia hopes for the quickest possible agreement on a mechanism for monitoring the ceasefire in Karabakh. “We are convinced that the most important thing now is and this, probably, doesn’t require much effort, to immediately stop whipping up confrontational rhetoric, both between the parties and through the responsible international players,” he stressed.

“After the meeting in Moscow, our hopes weren’t justified, because the strikes on settlements and civilian infrastructure continued, which is unacceptable. However, in order for the ceasefire to work, it’s necessary to establish and create a mechanism for monitoring compliance with the ceasefire. It’s the matter, on which we, including our Defence Ministry, primarily with our colleagues from Azerbaijan and Armenia, are now actively working, and we hope that such a mechanism will be agreed upon in the nearest future,” he stated. 

Lavrov also mentioned the need to significantly accelerate efforts for a political settlement, which is also stated in the Moscow statement. “In my opinion, we must induce the parties to agree on key provisions that would stabilise the situation in this region in the longer term, unblocking economic and transport links and ensuring reliable security of both Karabakh and other territories located there,” Lavrov concluded.