What Armenians think of sending troops to Kazakhstan?

| News, Armenia

On social media, many were quick to point to the irony of Armenia’s involvement in a mission to quell anti-government protests in Kazakhstan, hearkening back to the revolution that thrust the country’s ruling party, Civil Contract, into power in 2018.

Others have argued that Armenia should not take part in the mission in response to the CSTO’s inaction following the May 2021 Armenian-Azerbaijani border clashes, or even Kazakhstan’s support to Azerbaijan in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War.

Armenian political expert Benyamin Poghosyan said:

"Meanwhile, the decision by Armenia to send 100 soldiers to Kazakhstan as a part of the CSTO peacekeeping mission will have negative implications for Armenia. No one expected Yerevan to veto the decision to intervene once Russia had made up its mind, but the Armenian government could have decided not to send Armenian troops to Kazakhstan. Armenia could have cited Azerbaijan's continuing occupation of Armenian territories as a reason, saying that it cannot deploy Armenian troops outside Armenia when the country is under aggression.”

Poghosyan continued, “the West views the decision to deploy CSTO troops in Kazakhstan through the authoritarian powers fight against democratic movements paradigm. The US Department of State has already questioned the legitimacy of the CSTO military deployment, and on January 7, 2022, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that Kazakhstan would find it challenging to lower Russian influence after inviting in troops to quell unrest… Social media is full of statements and arguments about Armenia sending troops to Syria in 2019, Kazakhstan in 2022, and speculations about Armenian troops to be sent to Ukraine as part of Russian units in case of a Russian military invasion.”

“Azerbaijan will use this momentum to discredit the Armenian government in the West seeking to close the gap between Armenian and Azerbaijani democratic credentials. If Armenia is as authoritarian as Azerbaijan, there is no need for the Western governments, expert circles, or society to support Armenia against Azerbaijan based on democracy and values. At the same time, in purely geopolitical terms, Azerbaijan is much more important for the West than Armenia. Thus, the best choice for Armenia would have been to support the decision to send CSTO troops to Kazakhstan, but not to include Armenian soldiers in the mission. Armenian soldiers in Kazakhstan will harm Armenia's image and standing in the West and will not benefit the country," Poghosyan added.

Many Armenians perceive Kazakhstan, which shares Turkic roots with Azerbaijan, to be more sympathetic to their enemy.

“The people of any country must choose their own government; no other country has the right to interfere in its internal affairs. Today, the Armenian armed forces have a mission to protect the borders of our country,” a coalition of pro-Western NGOs said in a statement. “We condemn the short-sighted and irresponsible actions of the Armenian government.”

While officials in Kazakhstan (and Russia, which dominates the CSTO) have stated that the turmoil is the consequence of external terrorist groups, human rights expert Artur Sakunts said that assertion should not be taken seriously.

"People were looting businesses during the March 1 protests in 2008, and they never found out who was doing it," he said, implying that provocateurs were active then, as they are today in Kazakhstan. "We're dealing with a similar situation here. There's a sabotage element to it, and we can't just label everything terrorist."

"Pashinyan should have just voiced concern over a situation, but he tried to be more Russian Orthodox than the Kremlin and fulfilled the Kremlin's command," said Sakunts, referring to Pashinyan’s claim that the protests in Kazakhstan were the result of “external interference.” As for Grigoryan’s argument about the functioning of the CSTO, Sakunts responded: “Who are you to make it function, did you look at our resources? If you could make it function, you should have made it function for us.”

Some speculated that if protests against Pashinyan's administration erupted, he may try to invoke the CSTO. According to military researcher Karen Vrtanesyan, Grigoryan "openly acknowledged why Nikol was deploying soldiers to Kazakhstan" in his answer. "If Nikol's government is threatened tomorrow or the next day, Kazakhstan will deploy soldiers to Armenia."

However, as a member of the CSTO and reliant on Russian assistance, Armenia has limited options, according to Maria Karapetyan, a parliamentarian from the ruling Civil Contract party. Critics, she claimed, want Armenia to quit the CSTO and "make a new geopolitical decision."

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