By Anna Vardanyan for Caucasus Watch 

U.S. President Donald Trump’s national security adviser John Bolton’s visit to the South Caucasus was featured by a number of strategic announcements. First and foremost, we should note that the growing American interest in South Caucasus was demonstrated by the visit of one of the most influential political figures in the US administration. The messages that Bolton sent in Baku and later in Yerevan, were definitely noteworthy. Particularly in Armenia, Bolton touched upon the most important and sensitive issues for the country, including weapon sales and delivering a humanitarian mission to Syria, the potential of the new Armenian authorities in the negotiations on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict etc. Some of Bolton's statements even qualified as sensational and immediately animated the Armenian political class, giving rise to different interpretations both of former and current authorities and politicians evoking heated debates.

Here is a summary of the events:

During a press conference in Yerevan, John Bolton noted in regard to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict: "If the prime minister and his political party get a mandate in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia, it will serve as a good opportunity for the prime minister to take decisive steps in the direction of a Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement ".

At the same time, addressing the issue of arms sales, Bolton recalled that 80% of Azerbaijan’s purchases of arms come from Russia, and that Armenia is mainly buying weapons from Russia as well. “This fact gives enormous leverage to Russia over those countries, and it does not contribute to bringing peace and conflict resolutions”, he added.

In an exclusive interview with RFE / RL, Bolton did not rule out that the United States can sell arms to Armenia and become an alternative. He specifically noted: "If it’s a question of buying Russian military equipment versus buying U.S. military equipment, we would prefer the latter. We think our equipment is better than the Russians’ anyway. So we want to look at that. And I think it increases Armenia’s options when it’s not entirely dependent on one major power."

Bolton's statements were not accepted by the representatives of the former elite. In its analysis, the former defense minister Vigen Sargsyan noted: "For the first time, the purpose of the Armenian-American official dialogue was not to clarify the mutual interests and approaches, but to inform one another about the interests of only one side. The impression was created that Bolton is not an adviser to the US president, but to the prime minister of Armenia, who came to tell him what to do and what not to do. It is not clear why the prime minister did not reiterate the principle of non-interference in each other's internal affairs, which he has voiced in Moscow before”.  In response to the accusations of the former official, Prime Minister Pashinyan said: “John Bolton speaks on his own behalf, and he or generally anyone cannot speak on my behalf. Yes, the election would give us opportunities, but let me say that there cannot be a solution that would not be acceptable for the people of Armenia, Artsakh and the government of Artsakh (Editor's note: The region of Nagorno-Karabakh is often referred to as "Artsakh" in Armenia). In case of any solution, we must be transparent towards the public", emphasized Pashinyan. The prime minister also assured that Armenia is open to discussing the possibility of buying weapons from the United States, if there is a good offer.

Political analyst Ruben Mehrabyan thinks that Bolton has openly acknowledged that Russia does not contribute to making peace by selling arms to both sides: “I consider this an unprecedented statement in terms of commonly accepted belief that between the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, Russia and the US, there is a consensus on this issue”.

The Republicans (RPA) consider Bolton's statement "unacceptable", as according to them the mediators should not provide arms to any side or should provide do so that the balance of power will not be violated, whereas, ARF says it "welcomes" the opportunity of buying weapons from the US.

Vahram Baghdasarian, the leader of the former ruling Republican Party of Armenia’s (RPA) parliamentary faction, is claiming that such statements incite a war between the parties of the conflict. The senior members of the RPA led by former president Serzh Sarkisian referred to the principle of prohibiting arms supplies to warring parties. “This escalates the situation and aggravates the negotiating process,” Baghdasarian said on Friday.

Armen Rustamian, the leader of the parliamentary faction of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun), believes that Armenia today is behind Azerbaijan in its military buildup. “Aggressions and hostilities start when the balance is disturbed… and if in his statement Mr. Bolton meant that in order to maintain the balance, Armenia should also have other types of weapons that restore this balance, then, of course, it can be welcomed, because it is very important for us that we have a balance with Azerbaijan in terms of the types of military capabilities” he told RFE/RL’s Armenian service (Azatutyun.am) on Friday.

American political scientist Dr. Vigen Hovsepian believes that Bolton's confirmations on the processes taking place in Armenia open up interesting opportunities for the country, which can be achieved without complicating the delicate relationship between Armenia and Russia.

It should also be noted that from Bolton's statements and press conference, it became clear that the United States did not put heavy commitments or expectations upon Armenia, particularly on sending of humanitarian aid to Syria, as well as on its policy towards Iran. Apparently, the US showed understanding on Armenia's position on these two complicated issues.

Let us be reminded that during a briefing with reporters, Bolton referred to the fact of sending a humanitarian mission to Syria, noting that the prime minister of Armenia has assured him that this is not going to be military assistance, it would be purely humanitarian:

“I think that is important. It would be a mistake for anybody else to get involved militarily in the Syrian conflict at the moment.”, he added.