Military developments

On 21 October, the de facto Defence Ministry of Nagorno-Karabakh reported that the situation in the conflict zone was stable and tense overnight with shooting and battles continuing in separate sections of the frontline. The de facto ministry also said that currently there are local battles in the northern and southern directions of the front line. In addition, the report stated that civilian infrastructures of Martakert and nearby villages succumbed to fire. 

The Azerbaijani MOD reported that the city of Terter and the territories around it succumbed to artillery shelling. It was also reported that the Azerbaijani Army gained control over the Gejagozlu, Ashaghi Seyidahmadli, Zargar villages of Fuzuli district, and Balyand, Papi, Tulus, Hajili, Tinli villages of Jabrayil district. 

The Prosecutor General’s Office of Azerbaijan updated the information on the number of victims and wounded among the civilian population. According to the updated data, 63 civilians have been killed and another 292 people were injured. As for the casualties from Armenia’s side, it was reported that so far 825 servicemen and 37 civilians were killed and more than 116 civilians were wounded during the clashes.  

Political developments

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said during a Facebook Live streaming that the Karabakh issue, at least at this stage, has no diplomatic solution. “We must clearly realise that, at least at this stage and starting from this stage, the Karabakh issue will not be having a diplomatic solution for quite a long time. And all those hopes, proposals and  thoughts saying that a diplomatic solution needs to be found, especially in this situation, in fact, should be considered over,” he stated. 

Pashinyan also addressed all mayors and municipal authorities in Armenia by urging them to lead the formation of volunteer squads. “They must stand firmly and implement tasks given by commanders,” Pashinyan said. “We must stand by the side of our fighting guys. Who else if not us…? You are the person who must take a weapon and go to stand by the side of our hero boys and win. The victory demands the effort of each of us,” he added. Pashinyan also urged political parties and NGOs to form squads too. 

The Assistant to Azerbaijan’s President Hikmet Hajiyev commented on Pashinyan’s statement. According to him, this statement shows that the Armenian leadership believes that Armenia’s purpose is to keep the Azerbaijani territories under occupation. “Thus, it is again confirmed that the statement of the official Yerevan on the solution of the conflict through negotiations, is nothing but hypocrisy. Armenia’s Prime Minister irresponsibly and for the sake of his own political ambitions calls on all civilian authorities, civilian people for total armament and influences them into military operations. This official stance of Armenia proves who violated the humanitarian ceasefire regime and serves for further escalation of the situation in the region,” he said.   

Two days earlier, Pashinyan discussed the hostilities in and around Karabakh with leaders of Armenia’s main opposition parties. Newspaper reports said that they talked about the situation on the ground and possible solutions to the conflict that could be proposed by international mediators and Russia in particular. A statement of 16 political parties in Armenia was released saying that the authorities set up a military-political operative headquarters that will include ex-presidents, foreign ministers and defence ministers.

Parallel to these developments, Armenia’s former Presidents Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan met for the first time in many years to discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Ter-Petrosyan’s spokesman, Arman Musinyan, said the meeting was necessitated by the “current worrying situation” in the conflict zone. Musinyan said that Ter-Petrosian, Sargsyan and Kocharyan were joined by two former de-facto Karabakh presidents, Arkady Ghukasyan and Bako Sahakyan. He gave no other details of the meeting. Ghukasyan and Sahakyan also held separate meetings with Ter-Petrosyan and Pashinyan. 

The Armenian government imposed a temporary ban on the import of goods from Turkey. The ban will be in effect from 31 December and will remain in effect for six months. The Armenian government adopted this resolution on 21 October. The essence of the decision is to stop Armenian money from being injected into the Turkish state treasury. “Restricting the import of Turkish goods, first of all, pursues the goal of security, given the repeatedly confirmed facts that Turkey openly supports military and terrorist actions against Nagorno-Karabakh,” the office of Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigоryan said in a statement.

Armenia’s President Armen Sarkissian flew to Brussels on a working visit, where he is scheduled to meet NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, President of the European Council Charles Michel and other high-ranking officials. The statement of the office of Armenia’s President emphasised that Sarkissian intends to speak with the heads of European organisations on issues related to conflict. Planned discussion topics include Turkey’s open participation and as the evidence of Azerbaijani rocket attacks towards Armenian border settlements.

Another interesting statement came from the Chairman of the Human Rights Commission of the Armenian Parliament Naira Zohrabyan who spoke of Russian ammunition supplies to Armenia during the conflict. “Russia has fulfilled its obligations as a strategic ally in terms of ammunition and continues to fulfil it. Those who doubt this are at least idiots, or traitors. Russia continues to fulfil its obligations on a daily basis. I cannot reveal the details, but I can say that ... those grant-eating organisations that consistently spread anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia acted very badly. Nevertheless, Russia continues to fulfil its obligations - within the framework of both treaties and "non-treaties,” she stated. 

International developments

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov left for Moscow on a working visit to hold consultations with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. Earlier it was reported that Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan arrived in Russia on a short working visit.

According to the statement of Russia’s Foreign Ministry, a set of urgent issues related to the implementation of the previously reached ceasefire agreements and how to ensure its sustainable settlement were discussed between Lavrov and Mnatsaknyan and Bayramov separately. There was no indication that the meeting would be held in a joint format. 

The Iranian military began large-scale air defence exercises amid continuing heavy fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces along Iran’s north western border. Iranian media reported that the exercises will cover half of the country and take place as if it is a “real battle.” The Mehr news agency quoted General Abbas Farajpour as saying that Iranian air defence units will practice “protecting the country's strategic sites with the help of homegrown missile, radar and reconnaissance systems as well as electronic warfare, communication and monitoring equipment.” Previously the officials from Tehran stated that dozens of rockets and other projectiles have mistakenly landed near Iranian border villages since the start of the war on 27 September. It has threatened to take “tough measures” if Armenian or Azerbaijani forces continue to accidentally shell Iranian territory.

An interesting statement was made by Turkey’s ambassador to Japan Hasan Murat Mercan when asked about his country’s involvement in the conflict. Speaking at the panel discussion in Tokyo, Mercan said Azerbaijan has the right to take back its lands within the framework of international law, stressing that Turkey is not a party in the Karabakh conflict. “Turkey supports Azerbaijan politically and morally and will continue to do so. But it will never become part of the military conflict,” he said, adding that the dispute threatens regional security.