On 12 November, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke about the Nagorno-Karabakh agreement signed between Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

“We [Russia] would have preferred for the conflict to be settled long ago—on the basis of the principles developed by the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs, about which the President of Azerbaijan has repeatedly spoken recently and stressed his readiness to implement on the basis of those principles proposed by the Co-Chairs. If we had gone that way, the result linked to the liberation of five regions—then two more—would probably have been the same. But first, it would have been bloodless, and second, it would have been done as a final political settlement,” Lavrov stated.

While speaking on the internal political situation in Armenia (Caucasus Watch reported), Lavrov emphasised that the Armenian opposition is trying to speculate on the Karabakh ceasefire accords. "I believe that the responsible authorities should have explained to the population that at some stage this settlement would have to be implemented in accordance with the principles that had been on the table for many years, had been proposed by the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs and that opened, as I believe, an ideal way for settling this conflict without any bloodshed and without any damage to the security of whomever is in that region, first of all, of course, Karabakh Armenians and other ethnic groups living in Karabakh and from the countries of the region,” Lavrov added. 

Russia’s top diplomat said that he believes that unblocking all communications, including transport and economic links should play a big positive role for the region’s revival, including for the recovery of the Armenian economy that suffered more than others due to the termination of trade and transport links of Azerbaijan and Turkey.

He also spoke on the speculated deployment of Turkish peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. Lavrov said that the boundaries of the mobility of Turkish observers will be limited to those areas that have been allocated not in the territory of the previous conflict. As for the statements made in the Turkish parliament about sending Turkish troops, the Russian FM said that he had read them, as well as read the statements from the Turkish Foreign and Defence Ministers that they would work on the same basis as the Russians. “We are talking only about the centre which is set up in the territory of Azerbaijan, remotely, without a mission trip. Russian and Turkish observers will work in the centre; the specialists will work in equal conditions. There will be no Turkish peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh; this is clearly stated in the statement of the Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian leaders,” he emphasised.

Lavrov also said that the Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group maintain their role in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. He didn’t agree with the negative assessment on the meeting of Foreign Ministers Zohrab Mnatsaknyan (Armenia) and Jeyhun Bayramov (Azerbaijan) held in the USA. He added that the mediators were somewhat offended that they weren’t thoroughly informed about the course of negotiations, but the relevant clarifications were well recived. Lavrov also denied the rumours about plans to include Turkey among the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs.

When speaking on the next steps which would create the conditions for a lasting peace in the region, Lavrov said that ensuring the rights of the ethno-confessional groups living there would be one of the major issues to tackle in the foreseeable future. “All refugees and displaced persons have the right to return to Karabakh and restore their cultural and civilizational religious roots. The situation regarding many monasteries and mosques should be discussed, many of which are in a painful state today... I am convinced that now that we have reached a peaceful settlement after the cessation of hostilities, special attention should be paid to the cultural heritage issues of Armenians, Azerbaijanis, and other groups,” he said. 

Other notable developments

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that the statement he signed still does not amount to a solution to the longstanding problem concerning the region’s status. He again defended his decision to put an end to hostilities at the cost of concessions, saying that the continuation of fighting was fraught with even greater losses, including the lives of thousands of Armenian soldiers. He added that the signing the deal prevented a collapse of Armenian defence lines and encirclement of up to 25,000 soldiers that would be cut off from the rear.

However, Pashinyan admitted that the signed deal was bad for Armenia, but that it shouldn't be presented as worse than it is, discarding the talk about Armenia ceding territories in the south as absolute nonsense. He said that the matter concerns unblocking transport communications in the region from which Armenia could also benefit.

Pashinyan also emphasised that the tasks regarding the status of Nagorno-Karabakh have not changed. “The international recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh becomes an absolute priority and there are more weighty arguments for that now,” he stated.

Parallel to Pashinyna’s statement, reports emerged that criminal cases were initiated by the country’s Special Investigation Service (SSS) on illegally organizing mass gatherings against the Prosperous Armenia leader Gagik Tsarukyan, Fatherland (Hayrenik) leader Artur Vanetsyan, the leaders of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) Ishkhan Saghatelyan, Gegham Manukyan and Eduard Sharmazanov, Republican Party leader Serzh Sargsyan and many other. 

The spokesperson of Armenia’s Defence Ministry Shushan Stepanyan declared a no-fly zone in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, except for military aircraft. She also refuted rumours about a Turkish unmanned aircraft flying over Yerevan and noted that Armenian and Russian air defence forces were protecting the airspace of both Armenia and Karabakh. Meanwhile it was reported that the whole Russian peacekeeping contingent in the region would be financed by Russia. 

Meanwhile, the de facto President of Nagorno-Karabakh Arayik Harutunyan called the Armenian people “traitors” during a live broadcast on his Facebook page. “If someone should be accused of treason, then the whole Armenian people can be accused of it. Who sold the land? We did it together with our people, we betrayed. We all did it together,” Harutyunyan said.

Harutunyan’s spokesperson Vahram Poghosyan urged the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh “not to rush to leave the Kashatag and Shahumyan/Kelbajar regions.” He also stated that territorial concessions and the terms stated in the joint statement have not yet been discussed with the de facto Nagorno-Karabakh authorities.

It was also reported that local departments of Azerbaijan’s State Security Service (SSS) have started to work in Jabrayil, Zangilan, Fuzuli, Gubadli districts, and Hadrut settlement of Khojavand district, as well as in Shusha.