The third cease-fire agreement

On 26 October, the third ceasefire agreement came into force following the discussions between US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov. The US State Department said agreement was reached following intense negotiations. 

The warring parties agreed to abide by the terms of the humanitarian ceasefire agreed in Moscow on 10 October, which were reaffirmed in the statement issued from Paris on 17 October, the joint statement added.

The spokesperson of Russia’s President Dmitri Peskov commented on the new agreement. “The process of settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis is in a very [critical] phase. This conflict shouldn’t be a ground for any confrontation and competition. Of course, Russia as a co-chair country is ready to welcome all steps that would help to stop the war,” he said. 

Military operations continue 

Both of the warring factions reported a breach of the ceasefire just minutes after the new agreement came into force. The spokesperson of Armenia’s Ministry of Defence Shushan Stepanyan reported that the Azerbaijani forces opened artillery fire towards combat positions in the north-east of Nagorno-Karabakh. She added that the depth of the fighting has sharply increased in the conflict zone.

The de facto Office of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Human Rights Defender reported that the village of Avetaranots in the Askeran region was shelled, killing one civilian and wounding two. It was also reported that a Smerch missile was fired towards the Zardashen village of the Martuni region.

The assistant to Azerbaijan President Hiklmet Hajiyev stated that from the morning 200 artillery projectiles were fired to Agjabadi, Tartar and Agdam regions from the Armenian side. It was also reported that the Azerbaijani army gained control over the city of Gubadli and village of Khanlig, which is located on the road leading from the territories of Zangilan region to the north, to Lachin.

In addition, the Azerbaijani MOD reported that it gained control over the villages of Birinji Alibayli, Ikinji Alibayli, Raband, Yenikand in Zangilan district, Govshudlu, Sofulu, Dagh Mashanli, Kurdlar, Hovuslu, Chalabilar in Jabrayil district, Padar, Afandilar, Yusifbayli, Chaytumas, Sariyatag, Mollaburhan in Gubadli district.

Political developments

While addressing the nation, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev made critical remarks towards the efforts of the international community, particularly at the OSCE Minsk Group and the UN Security Council, by saying that they should not hinder the process. “Unlike Armenia, we do not want help from anyone. Let them not hinder and not try the Azerbaijani people’s patience. The war will end, and we will achieve what we want. And how will our relations be? Will the Azerbaijani people forget this injustice? We will not forget. Let them think about it. Azerbaijan is no longer a state whose interests can be put aside. No. A day will come, they will come with requests, suggestions, cooperation proposals. How will they look at our face?” he said.

Aliyev continued by saying that Armenia was carrying out an illegal settlement in the region. "Does someone say anything to them? Nobody says anything! This is a crime, an international crime, it is contrary to the Geneva Conventions. Nobody tells them why they are carrying out illegal settlements, and demonstratively, bringing Armenians from Arab countries and placing them [there], including in Shusha. Nobody says anything. What does this mean? This suggests that go on, bring as much as you want, Armenianise these lands, destroy the cultural heritage of Azerbaijan! The bottom line was this. Otherwise, don't these three countries (USA, Russia and France) have enough opportunities to show the aggressor in his place? They didn't want it,” he added.

A day earlier, Aliyev gave an interview with FOX News, saying that he wants the region of the Southern Caucasus to be deeply integrated and that after the Karabakh issue is resolved that Azerbaijan harbours  strategic relations with Armenia like it has with Georgia.

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that, despite local provocations, the ceasefire is generally observed. However, Pashinyan called for the Armenian people to stand up against Azerbaijan. “The Armenian people and government are ready for mutual concessions, even for painful concessions, but the Armenian people are not ready for surrender in any case. In order to persuade Azerbaijan to make concessions, we need to stand up and fight,” he said in his Facebook broadcast. A few hours later, Pashinyan stated that “the statements of the international community to establish a ceasefire, have failed.”  

Pashinynan’s spouse Anna Hakobyan announced that she would go to the frontline to fight alongside the Armenian army in Nagorno-Karabakh. “From tomorrow, a detachment of 13 women, including myself, will begin training. In a few days we will set off to defend the borders of our Motherland. We cannot concede either our Motherland or our dignity to the enemy,” she wrote on her Facebook page.

Armenia’s President Armen Sarkissian signed a decree dismissing Vaghinak Sargsyan as commander of the border troops of the National Security Service (NSS). With another decree he appointed Arman Maralchyan to the position. 

The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs announced that they would meet with the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Zohrab Mnatsaknyan and Jehyun Bayramov, in Geneva on 29 October to discuss all of the necessary steps to achieve a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.