Total abandonment of the Anaklia project would limit Georgia’s potential to become a growing place for interregional trade between Central Asia and the Black Sea basin. The successful completion of the port, on the other hand, will boost Tbilisi’s ambitions to position itself on one of the routes in the Chinese ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI) and also uphold itself as one of the connectors between European and Asia markets.

On January 9, the Georgian government announced it would begin procedures to cancel the agreement signed in 2016 with the Anaklia Development Consortium (ADC). The reason was ADC’s failure to follow the requirements present in the agreement. Subsequently, all construction works going on around Anaklia and the railway up linking to the future port itself immediately stopped.

Though the ADC turned out to be unsuccessful, it is unlikely to be the last attempt to build the Anaklia port, it could be argued that the idea of the port is likely to survive throughout 2020 and beyond. 

For that reason, it is important to look at the Anaklia project from a wider perspective. Many in Georgia or abroad fail to mention that the ADC’s attempt to build Anaklia was the latest attempt in a string of previous attempts to construct the port. Back in the Soviet times there were several attempts by the government to build a deep seaport in Anaklia. Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, despite Georgia’s internal instability, there were numerous projects regarding the potential construction of the port. After 2003 there was a project called ‘Lazika’, abandoned in 2012.

It is clear that the idea of the Anaklia port is not tied to any single Georgian government, but that it is a product of the country’s geopolitical ambitions to serve as a connector between the Caspian and the Black Seas. It could be argued with some certainty that future attempts to build the port will resurface whether under the present government or any future. Indeed, various officials from the Georgian government were hinting that work to find new investors will start soon, while the Georgian Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development Natia Turnava on Jan. 21st stated that the procedures for a new tender will start soon. This follows previous statements by various Georgian officials claiming that the Anaklia port will be built whether under the ADC (before the cancellation of the agreement) or with new investors.

The port will also enable Georgia to gain a larger economic importance in the Black Sea and be better linked to the Eastern Europe as well as the Mediterranean. The deep-sea project is thus associated with Georgia’s pro-western ambitions openly stated in the Georgian Constitution and everyday political life.

Beyond the country’s geopolitical aspirations, there is also Georgia’s internal politics. As the country nears the crucial parliamentary elections in October 2020, the issue of the Anaklia port will be central to the Georgian society and many of the opposition forces who blame the government for allegedly torpedoing the project. Surprisingly, this internal politicking will keep the idea of constructing the Anaklia port afloat throughout 2020 as the abandonment of the project would be politically damaging.

Eurasian Perspective

However, there are large geopolitical developments which could potentially hamper the future plans to construct the Anaklia port. First, to Anaklia’s south, in Poti, a decision to construct a multimodal transit terminal was floated. Wondernet Express, International port operator APM Terminals, along with Poti New Terminals Consortium, submitted a conceptual design for the expansion of Poti. The project would entail a 14.5-metre water depth by a 700-metre quay wall. Meanwhile, the US Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) issued a loan of $50mn to Pace Group to develop a new terminal at Poti. Moving even further south, in another Georgian port, Batumi, construction of an additional terminal was also announced. 

For the critics in Georgia this raises the following question: why then is the Anaklia port so necessary to build?

There is also the Russian factor. The Kremlin has rarely brought up the issue of the Anaklia port. Indeed, there have been no official statement or hints that Russia is particularly interested in the fate of the Anaklia project. However, the growth of Georgian supported trade in the Black Sea as a conduit between Europe and the Central Asia poses an increasing need among the maritime countries to have deep sea ones. This would explain some of Russia's recently announced plans. The RMP (RosMorPort) Taman Consortium, which includes five companies, will build the ‘Taman Port’. Strategically located on the Russian side of the Kerch Strait that connects the Black and Azov seas, the port will compete with the Ukrainian and Georgian ports, including that of Anaklia.

Extending our geopolitical picture further, it is clear the Anaklia project has become a part of a China-US geopolitical competition which covers the entire Eurasian continent. The US has been working on preventing China from extending its control over vital roads, ports, railways and natural resource bases. As Anaklia, due to its strategic location, quite naturally falls within the Chinese interests, the US has worked on keeping Beijing at bay. The very fact the Chinese did not get the right to build the port in 2016, but their only competitors, Americans, did, shows Washington's moves to block the Chinese.

Moreover, this was also clear in Mike Pompeo’s statement in mid-2019 when he stressed to the Georgians that “its [Anaklia’s] implementation will strengthen Georgia’s ties with free economies and will not allow Georgia to be under the economic influence of Russia or China. These imaginary friends are not driven by good intentions.”

These differing geopolitical visions of Beijing and Washington could serve as a big disincentive for constructing the port. But, surprisingly, this very competition could actually be a catalyst for new plans. Fear of Anaklia falling into Chinese hands could revitalize American plans. Indeed, US officials or the representatives of the American embassy in Tbilisi have been quite consistent with their statements on US’ long-term interests around Anaklia port. Moreover, various letters from US congressmen over the past several months addressed to the Georgian government indicate America’s long-term involvement plans in the future Anaklia port project.

Forecast

Thus, though the contract with the ADC was cancelled, there is a wide range of developments in Georgia signalling that various ideas of constructing the port will be mooted in 2020 and beyond. Beyond internal affairs, the US-Chinese competition around the port would keep the project floating for some time. Moreover, considering Washington’s consistent moves, it is highly likely that the US companies will be taking an active part in new tenders for the Anaklia port.

Emil Avdaliani specializes on former Soviet space and wider Eurasia with particular focus on South Caucasus and Russia's internal and foreign policy, relations with China, the EU and the US. He can be reached at emilavdaliani@yahoo.com.