Dr. Beka Chedia is Researcher and Assoc. Professor of Political Science from Tbilisi, Georgia. He is a Country Expert (Georgia) in the several international research programmes, political analyst and writing contributor to several leading think tanks, research centers in Europe in US. He had been a visiting scholar at several higher educational institutions and think tanks in Western and Eastern Europe.

The position of the governing class of Georgia is worsening, and the clouds are gathering around it. Almost every day, the world community makes critical remarks against the country's authorities as the governing class of Georgia commits more and more disastrous blunders, both in foreign policy and in the internal political processes of the state. According to some analysts, the inactive or indifferent posture of the current Georgian government towards the conflict in Ukraine has considerably upset the country's Western allies and has greatly tarnished the prestige of the governing Georgian Dream party (GD). All of this has many causes, such as the crisis in Ukraine, claims that the country's leaders have a pro-Russian policy, the weakening of democracy, and failed politics at home.

Such criticism from the West only fuels and motivates the opposition, which is on the verge of extinction. The opposition no longer expects the backing of the masses and no longer expects to be able to exert pressure on the government via large-scale public protests. The people have long been disillusioned not just with the government but also with the opposition; hence, in order to increase the political heat in the country, the opposition needs a catalyst and leverages Western criticism deftly. Therefore, the opposition's agenda is likewise centered on Ukraine, as opposed to domestic issues such as the country's economic challenges. It is remarkable that, according to a public opinion survey, 44 percent of the Georgian populace believes that the Georgian government's stance in support of Ukraine has been insufficient, while 53% of Georgians believe Ukraine's help is adequate. Simultaneously, Georgia maintains its political, diplomatic, and humanitarian support for Ukraine even as its ruling class continues to accuse Ukrainian government officials of having ties to the Georgian opposition.

The Georgian ruling elite, which about half a year ago declared its adherence to the so-called "Sovereign Democracy" and non-interference policy of the West, is not only defiantly ignoring statements from the West, but it is also becoming more and more inaccurate towards its internal opponents, who use Western criticism to their advantage. The governing class of the nation accuses almost all of its internal (parties, NGOs, media, and individuals) and foreign (former diplomats, lawmakers, and European Union members) opponents of having covert links to the United National Movement (UNM), the main opposition party. However, the GD is grossly mistaken when it looks for traces of this party everywhere and portrays it as an all-powerful force. Especially in light of the fact that the current chairman of the UNM, Nikanor Melia, is being criticized inside the party for his quiet attitude towards the detention of the former president and supreme face of the party, Saakashvili.

Obviously, the UNM has strong connections and long-term cooperation abroad, so the ruling party has a legitimate right to suspect some foreign experts or politicians of sympathizing with the United National Movement. However, accusing everyone in a row of having ties to the former government seems unreasonable. For instance, the GD condemns the German politician and European Parliament member Viola von Cramon extremely often. Last time, the country's Minister of Culture declared that Cramon was coordinating with the UNM to overthrow the Georgian government. In reality, however, the German politician was an ardent opponent of the UNM when this party was in power. Also illogical is when the Georgian Dream accuses former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia, who until recently looked to be the political leader of the GD, of covert connections. Notably, as prime minister and party leader in October 2020, Gakharia led the election campaign for the ruling GD. Shortly after his resignation from office, during the local self-government elections in October 2021, Georgian Dream hung blood-stained banners with portraits of Gakharia and opposition leaders as a symbol of the UNM all over the country.

Moreover, the GD party has strained relations with various foreign authorities as well. Ian Kelly, the former US ambassador to Georgia, and David J. Kramer, the former assistant secretary of state for democracy, human rights, and labor in the George W. Bush administration, published an article on May 24 titled “Putin Is Failing in Ukraine, but Winning in Georgia; The Government in Tbilisi Is Taking Pages From Putin’s Playbook,” where they harshly denounced the Georgian government. The former ambassador basically accuses the Georgian government of usurping all branches of power and repressing the political opposition. He also highlights the billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, the informal head of the governing elite's close ties to Russia, and underscores the need of implementing Western sanctions on him. Consequently, the leaders of the Georgian Dream party reacted to this article. Irakli Kobakhidze, head of the governing Georgian Dream party, referred to the authors of the article as United National Movement lobbyists. Thea Tsulukiani, the Minister of Culture, claimed on her Facebook page that Ian Kelly often intervenes in Georgian domestic politics in support of the UNM party and attempts to influence Georgian citizens. The Minister argues that the former ambassador dislikes Georgia since his devotion to the UNM has become his life's compass.

Notable is the fact that, in the context of increasing Western criticism, potential sanctions on informal leader Ivanishvili are a major source of concern for the power elite. Both unofficial acquaintances of the Georgian billionaire and members of the governing class have previously spoken openly about a suspected multinational plot against Ivanishvili. GD’s leader has a particularly long-standing dispute with the Swiss bank Credit Suisse and Credit Suisse's Green Vals Trust, which recently halted transactions from the billionaire's account. This was seen by both the Georgian opposition and the country's ruling elite as the first hint of repercussions against the country's unofficial leader. On May 10, Irakli Kobakhidze referred to the actions of the Swiss bank as blackmail and actions coordinated with the UNM and the Ukrainian government in order to compel Ivanishvili to return to politics in exchange for his own frozen funds and to involve Georgia in the war. Such claims by government officials produce confusion not just in Georgian society but also among diplomats accredited in Georgia. Kelly Degnan, the US ambassador to Georgia, referred to it as a “causeless statement.”

The ruling elite has persistently rejected the existence of informal rule in the country, but a private financial dispute between a Swiss bank and a Georgian billionaire has nearly become an urgent political issue for the GD for some reason. The party leader's role as Ivanishvili's attorney was seen as an acknowledgement of informal control in the country. By the way, the country's leaders were dissatisfied when the European People's Party (which is considered a close partner of Georgia's main opposition force, the UNM), issued a statement on May 31 stating, "The country's informal, oligarchic rule has resulted in the continued erosion of democratic institutions." Gia Volsky, first vice speaker of the Georgian parliament, said that the UNM is the true originator of this statement.

Returning back to the Ukrainian conflict, the Georgian Dream has a new justification for their power as they are now openly claiming to be a party of peace. The GD administration portrays itself as a guarantee that there will be no war in Georgia and blames the opposition for seeking to establish a second front against Russia. Notable is the fact that after assuming power in 2012, the governing party - GD, in order to keep power, used for several years the technique of frightening the populace with the threat of potential retaliation by the UNM. The GD referred to the previous governing party, the UNM, as having exercised "nine years of bloody rule." In the beginning, this strategy was successful, though it eventually became evident that many no longer feared the return of the old governing party to power and supported UNM in the most recent parliamentary elections in 2020. According to the leadership of the Georgian Dream, this is the first administration in Georgia's history in which there were no military conflicts or wars. Nevertheless, per the studies of public opinion, the majority of Georgians continue to believe that Russia is waging an aggressive campaign against their country.

In light of such extreme political division, Georgia awaits a historic decision from the EU on whether to grant the nation candidate status for EU membership. The EU's stance will become apparent around the end of June 2022. If Georgia's application for candidacy status is granted, the country's governing class will gain confidence and become less tolerant of foreign and internal opponents. And if Georgia is denied candidate status, it is clear that the opposition will have a very powerful tool to exert pressure on the government.