About author: Ani Grigoryan is the founder and editor of CivilNetCheck - a fact checking department at CivilNet online TV. She has extensive experience in journalism, for more than 8 years. In the last three years she specialized in fact checking and investigative journalism.

The ongoing and protracted Russo-Ukrainian conflict highlighted Russia's diminishing involvement and influence in the South Caucasus. Recently, a number of analytical centers and experts have discussed Iran’s increasing role in the region, certain "concessions" by Moscow, and the shifting of the geopolitical balance in favor of Tehran. These geopolitical changes create a new situation for Armenia as well. 

Armenia and Iran have traditionally had neighborly relations. After the Second Karabakh War of 2020, these ties experienced changes. Iran has always supported Azerbaijan's territorial integrity regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. At the same time, when Azerbaijan won the 2020 war and began making territorial demands against Armenia, exhausted by defeat, Iran expressed its clear position that Armenia's territorial integrity is a red line, as announced by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in January 2021 in Armenia.

After the 2020 war, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev started talking about the "Zangezur Corridor." It aims to give Azerbaijan unrestricted access to its Nakhchivan enclave via an extraterritorial corridor without any Armenian checkpoints, while it passes through Armenian territory near the Iranian border.

The Armenian authorities have consistently stated that they will not provide an extraterritorial corridor to Azerbaijan. In addition to losing sovereignty, Armenia will also lose one of its two open borders. In the meantime, Aliyev continues to insist. Iran has repeatedly stated that it opposes this initiative. "Of course, we will not tolerate geopolitical and cartographic changes in the Caucasus,"  stated Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian in Moscow on October 10, 2021, at a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. In fact, Iran reaffirmed this position on a variety of platforms.

In the last two years, Armenia and Iran have engaged in a number of negotiations and meetings regarding economics, energy, infrastructure, and other cooperation activities.One of the important agendas of the two countries is the "Persian Gulf-Black Sea" project, which envisions an uninterrupted route connecting Delhi and Tehran with Europe via Yerevan and Tbilisi (with multimodal transportation). The idea was first proposed by Iran in 2016 and was later joined by Armenia, Bulgaria, Georgia, and Greece. A working group has been formed. The Armenian government has a substantial stake in this project.

Next is the North-South energy quadrilateral connection. Armenia, Georgia, Iran, and Russia signed a quadrilateral document in Yerevan in April 2016, confirming the road map for the development of the "North-South" energy corridor. Through its operation, the power systems of Russia, Georgia, Armenia, and Iran will be able to exchange flows of up to 1200 MW simultaneously.

The North-South road corridor project is  vital. Approximately 556 kilometers of highway should be built between the border with Iran and the border with Georgia, making Armenia a transit country for international transport corridors. Although the highway was supposed to be completed in 2019, only a small part has been completed as of the moment. According to an agreement reached in 2022, Iranian companies will be involved in the construction of the North-South road corridor, especially in the international tenders for the section between Sisian and Meghri.

Among other issues, on the agendas of both countries are the establishment of a railway connection and the construction of a third power transmission line between Armenia and Iran.     

Mutual visits and interactions 

The 17th session of the intergovernmental joint commission between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Iran in May 2022 was of particular importance. As a result, the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding. According to the Iranian energy minister, the signed 24-page document was the most meaningful memorandum the country has ever signed with another country. As well as energy and electronics, there is a reference to issues related to gas and oil products. It also encompasses roads, water, the environment, etc. Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan has also expressed readiness for Armenia to serve as a gateway for friendly Iran into the EAEU markets.

There is also quite active contact between Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. On November 1, Pashinyan visited Iran following his meeting with Aliyev and Vladimir Putin in Sochi. Pashinyan said he briefed Raisi on his trilateral meeting with Aliyev and Putin during their discussion of “issues on the regional agenda.”

“The Caucasus region is a part of Iran's history, civilization, and culture, and we are sensitive to the Caucasus region,” Raisi said. “Security and peace in the Caucasus region are very important for Iran.”

A memorandum on the extension of the "Gas for Electricity" contract between the two countries was signed during Pashinyan's visit to Tehran (this has been discussed since 2019). The contract has been extended until 2030. "We export 1 million cubic meters of gas to Armenia per day, it will be doubled based on the new memorandum," Iran's deputy oil minister, Majid Chegeni, said.

On October 21, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Ararat Mirzoyan and Foreign Minister of Iran Hossein Amir Abdollahian participated in the opening ceremony of the Consulate General of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Armenian town of Kapan. Iran announced opening a consulate here in December 2021. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan assured that the decision of the Iranian authorities to open a consulate general in the Syunik region, the pillar of Armenia, is deeply acknowledged and highly appreciated in the Armenian society. He also reiterated Armenia’s intention to establish a consulate general in Tabriz.

“In the presence of the respected and hospitable citizens of Kapan, I’d like to say that Iran considers the security of Armenia and the region as its own security. Our policy is to respect the territorial integrity, as well as the internationally recognized borders,” the Iranian FM said.

As has been mentioned, since January 2021, official Iran has repeatedly, on various platforms, announced its “red lines” in the South Caucasus - the impossibility of geopolitical changes.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during meetings with Turkish President Recep Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Tehran on July 19 and 20, 2022, respectively, announced that Iran will not tolerate the closing of the border with Armenia.

“If there is a policy to block Iran’s borders with Armenia, the Islamic Republic will oppose it since this border has been a transit link for several thousand years,” the Supreme Leader told Erdogan. 

Armenian authorities have also consistently stated that Iran is an important partner. Vahan Kostanyan, the deputy foreign minister of Armenia, told Al-Monitor.com “We had intelligence that larger attacks were being prepared by Azerbaijan when it attacked Armenia last September. Iranian actions and statements helped to stop further deterioration of that situation.” 

Iran's potential replacement of Russia as Armenia's primary security guarantor     

Armen Petrosyan, an analyst at the "Orbeli" Center and an expert on regional issues, notes that Iran's attempts to be more active in the region began two years ago, after the 44-day war of 2020 when Iran was left out of the  regional developments.

According to Petrosyan, Russia's influence in the region began to wane before the Russo-Ukrainian war, when the country was unable to fully exploit the trump cards it had acquired by adopting a one-sided, pro-Azerbaijani policy. According to the regional expert, Russia was seeking to act as a mediator and not as an ally of Armenia, which is based on bilateral agreements.

As evidence, he recalls the events of May 2021, when Azerbaijan attacked the autonomous territory of Armenia for the first time, but Russia did not take any action or even criticize Azerbaijan.

After that, when it was clear that Russia's position was weakening, Azerbaijan continued its military actions, and in Nagorno-Karabakh, in the areas under the control of Russian peacekeepers, there was a change in military positions. The influence of Russia in Armenia and perceptions in Armenian society were shaken, the expert notes, adding that it deepened after the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war and became obvious taking into account the position of the Russian Federation in connection with the Azerbaijani aggression of September 2022.

As a result, Armenia faces an even larger security gap and the necessity of finding new security cushions.In response to the observation that Iran's activation seems to be taking place with Russia's "permission", Iranian studies expert Georgi Mirzabekyan states that Iran is more concerned about Russia's current situation and is trying to play a serious role. Iran believed that Russia was the dominant state in the region before the Russo-Ukrainian war, but following the war, it became evident that Moscow's attention has been diverted elsewhere, and if Iran does not play the role assigned to it – not the role of Russia, but the role assigned to it — and more, if Iran is not proactive and active, it will be taken over by Turkey and Azerbaijan," the Iranian expert states.

"The Azerbaijani-Turkish tandem is real. All military exercises and mutual visits between Ankara and Baku worry Iran a lot. These recent Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercises (2022-November near the Azerbaijan-Iran border) were not against Armenia but actually against Iran itself," says the Iranian studies expert, noting that Iran's concerns in the region are as numerous as Armenia's.

Iran as a military ally instead of Russia

According to Iranian studies expert Georgi Mirzabekyan, Iran cannot replace Russia as Armenia's main security guarantor. "Iran cannot offer Armenia what Russia does. Of course, Russia's hands are tied, but in the end, it is a global player, and Iran is not. And Iran's hands are also tied in many issues, considering that it is under sanctions, it is not a super state, unlike, for example, China, the Russian Federation, and the USA," the Iranian expert explains.

Regional expert Armen Petrosyan also notes that Armenia and Iran are natural allies, have common interests in at least several directions and opportunities for new cooperation related to the promotion of these interests.

First of all, preventing the growth of the Turkish factor, which is directed against both Armenia and Iran. "Judging from the often-heard Azerbaijani rhetoric that says “Armenia is West Azerbaijan, North Iran is South Azerbaijan,” it is already enough to understand what threat the two countries are facing," Petrosyan notes, adding that the main topic on which the two countries can cooperate closely is the disruption of the so-called Zangezur Corridor.

Petrosyan, however, asserts that Iran cannot replace Russia. “Even if Armenia could not only ally with Iran but also create a trio in an alliance format: Russia, Iran, and Armenia, it is not certain whether it would ensure our security. It would place us in the anti-Western pole, ripe with political and economic problems, particularly sanctions.”

Will Armenia buy weapons from Iran?

Mirzabekyan notes that Armenia, being wary of sanctions, will not buy weapons from Iran. Furthermore, the expert considers it important to understand what Iran will demand in exchange for arms supplies. Additionally, Iran is, in any case, cautious. "If they give us weapons but don't give them to Azerbaijan, it can create additional problems for Iran. It should not be forgotten that in Iran, there are naturally pro-Azerbaijani political wings, moods, and MPs who advocate for deeper relations with Azerbaijan. At least from the standpoint of not creating grounds for Azerbaijan to get even closer to Turkey, this is not desirable. There are several aspects to the problem. In other words, it is not that Iran is ready and we are the ones refusing, or vice versa," the expert notes.

According to Armen Petrosyan, there are certainly opportunities in the field of military-technical cooperation, but it comes with a great deal of risk, first and foremost for Armenia. "As I mentioned, today we are trying to diversify our security system and capitalize on cooperation with the West       as well.  The deployment of the European Union observation mission here is a vivid example of this. But we know that the West has its red lines. If they understand our cooperation in the economic direction, because we have no alternative in the case of a blockade, then cooperation in the military and security sphere can be a red line for the West and thereby cause problems in the relations between Armenia and the West," Petrosyan says.            

Additionally, this will deepen problems with Russia since Moscow considers any player active in Armenia, whether it’s the West, Iran, Turkey, etc., as a rival, and it is capable of countering such activity. Representatives of Armenia's senior management also stated in an off-the-record interview that, at the moment, the possibility of buying weapons from Iran is not being considered. Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan recently told Al-Monitor that acquiring Iranian weapons “is not on our agenda”.