After the collapse of the USSR, the demographic situation in Georgia is permanently deteriorating. The population of Georgia is rapidly declining due to a decrease in the birth rate and, especially, an unprecedented wave of emigration. During the Soviet era, the population of Georgia was approximately 5,500,000 (including the population of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region (so-called South Ossetia)). Before the change of power in Georgia, by 2012, about 4,497,600 people lived in the country, and according to the data of 2023, only 3,736,000 people remained in Georgia (excluding the population of the occupied regions of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region). Both armed conflicts and the socio-economic difficulties that the country has been suffering from for many years have contributed to the decrease in the population. In practice, the country does not have a demographic policy. Not one government in the country seriously took up this matter.

The trend of emigration was permanently gaining momentum. But in recent years, especially after the coming to power of the Georgian Dream in 2012, the demographic situation in the country has deteriorated sharply. 244,966 Georgians left the country and became emigrants between 2012 and 2022, when the Georgian Dream Party was in power. According to the United Nations, Georgia's rate of population decline ranks 16th among the 20 rapidly declining countries in the world. According to the UN, by 2050, the population of Georgia will decrease by 11.8%.

In recent years, the birth rate in Georgia has been sharply declining. According to official information, in 2022, the number of live births in Georgia was 42,319.  This indicator decreased by 7.9 percent compared to the previous year. And if we compare these data with the data of previous years, it also becomes obvious that after the change of power in the country in 2012, a decline in the birth rate began. This is because many citizens go abroad to give birth to children for the subsequent opportunity to legally stay in these countries. In 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, even then the number of newborns was -56,565, in 2009 - 63,377, in 2010 - 62,558, and in 2011 -58,014. By 2012, Georgia even recorded population growth due to both an increase in the birth rate and a positive migration balance. From 2011 to 2012, the country's population even grew by 0.6%.

After the end of the COVID pandemic, an unprecedented surge of emigration is gathering pace and remains Georgia's greatest demographic challenge. Georgians flee mainly to Europe and the United States. In order to get into these countries, they use both legal and illegal methods. The most common method is to cross the border of a foreign state as a tourist. Many of these "tourists" immediately apply to the relevant authorities of a particular country, demanding political asylum. Since 2014, a total of 126,770 asylum applications have been registered from Georgia to EU countries and Switzerland, according to the European Union's statistical service, Eurostat. This number also includes those who tried to apply for asylum in the European Union and Switzerland for the second time.

The number of asylum applications from Georgian citizens in the EU and Schengen area countries almost doubled in 2022 compared to the previous year (2021) and amounted to 28,797 in just one year. The main countries where Georgians seek asylum the most are Germany, France, and Italy. According to the European Union Asylum Agency (EUAA), Georgia is among the top ten countries from which the EU has most often requested asylum. These ten countries, along with Georgia, includeAfghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Venezuela, Colombia, and Turkey.

After the visa-free regime with the Schengen zone was activated in 2017, on the one hand, this gave Georgian citizens the right to stay in 26 European countries for 90 days without a visa. On the other hand, it has simplified entry into the Schengen zone for future illegal stays there after the expiration of this period. There is no direct connection between visa liberalization and the growth of emigration to Europe, although the country's authorities, by approving the Law “On the Rules and Procedures for Georgian Citizens Exiting and Entering Georgia” - in 2020, decided to reduce the wave of illegal emigration to the EU. This law approved new restrictions for Georgian citizens wishing to visit EU countries. Although the real goal of passing such a law was to stop the wave of emigration.

If, before the adoption of this law, citizens of Georgia, according to the conditions of visa liberalization with the EU, had to present all the necessary documents only upon arrival in the Schengen area, then after the approval of the law in 2020, before Georgian citizens are allowed to leave their country, they are also required to submit all necessary documents to the Georgian border police before they cross the Georgian border. Now the Georgian border police have the right not to let suspicious citizens out of the country who do not have legal justification for their departure from the country.     

The migration flux to the United States and Canada has also increased. One of the methods of emigration in the United States is the illegal crossing of the border through Mexico. Recently, local media and social networks have been overwhelmed with reports of law enforcement or army officers leaving their posts and illegally fleeing through Mexico to the United States.     

Only the unemployed do not flee to the USA and Europe, but so do judges, former officials, journalists, TV presenters, and so on. For example, several former deputies or high-ranking officials of the country work as drivers on trailers or taxis. Being journalists in Georgia in exile, the same people work as waiters in hotels in the USA or Europe. The latest occurrence was the flight of the brother of the wife of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Georgia to the United States; as local media reported, a relative of the minister asked for political asylum.

In addition to staying illegally in other countries, young people go to Europe and the United States as students, and many of them remain there after graduation. Many Georgians also emigrate to earn money through legal means. In Germany, for example, young people go to work such as babysitting or construction; in Greece and Italy, older, middle-aged women work as housewives.

Recently, Poland has become one of the main directions of emigration, and where Georgians have mastered the taxi market, they also work as workers in construction, in factories, or open Georgian restaurants there. At the Polish Consulate in Tbilisi, long lines do not stop to obtain long-term work visas. One of the reasons for this is that Poland is one of the few EU countries where Georgian citizens can legally work during temporary migration.

Emigration for Georgians has become the only way to survive. Nearly every sixth Georgian citizen has a family member abroad who regularly provides financial support, according to the most recent study that CRRC-Georgia commissioned for the National Democratic Institute. From this study, it becomes clear that the desire to leave the country is relatively high among young citizens and men, but the authorities have nothing to offer such people.

According to the report (2022) by the European Union Agency for Asylum, if the citizens of Georgia most often cited the difficult economic situation as the reason for seeking asylum, then after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the number of those who already fear for their safety has increased      since in Georgia they no longer feel safe. But the main reason for emigration from Georgia is, of course, poverty, unemployment, or bank debts, which force not only young people but also people in adulthood to leave their homeland. As of May 2023, the number of recipients of social benefits in Georgia was 668,555. These people receive assistance from the state in the amount of 30-60 GEL per month.      

The World Bank ranks Georgia 21st among nations that depend on remittances, which further illustrates the difficult socioeconomic situation in Georgia. In the same ranking, Tonga ranks first. According to the National Bank of Georgia, in 2022, a record amount of $4.4 billion in money transfers were sent to Georgia from the top 10 countries: the Russian Federation, Italy, the USA, Greece, Israel, Germany, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and Spain. In addition, bank debt is one of the reasons for the growth of emigration. According to the latest data for the entire financial sector in Georgia, 1,929,780 people have debts totaling40,302,428,024 GEL.

The country's authorities do not want to acknowledge the fact that the rapid growth of emigration has nothing to do with poverty; on the contrary, they are talking about the country's unprecedented economic prosperity. One of the leaders of the ruling party, Irakli Kobakhidze, claims that the increase of emigration is due to the introduction of a visa-free regime with the EU, which was introduced in 2017.

The Georgian authorities are not only not concerned about the catastrophic growth of emigration, but at some point, on the contrary, they decided to encourage this process when the country's government in 2021 announced the start of a project for the legal employment of Georgian citizens in Germany. Notable in 2021, up to 100,000 Georgian citizens were registered who wanted to legally find employment under this government program, but only 299 of them were able to get a temporary (3-month) job in Germany in the field of agriculture and harvesting.

At the same time, the authorities are at least formally aware of the difficult demographic situation. Therefore, in the spring of 2023, a council was created under the government of the country to discuss demographic issues. And even before that, in 2016, the “Concept of Demographic Security of Georgia” was approved in Parliament. According to this concept, the country's government was to develop a strategy for the country's demographic security for 2017-2030. Although it is not known what the authorities did for this, at least during these years, the wave of emigration sharply increased and the birth rate decreased.

One such measure to improve the demographic situation in the country is the  authority’s call for a new initiative through legislative changes to simplify the acquisition of citizenship for those who previously had citizenship in Georgia. This draft law is ready, and most likely in autumn 2023, the country's parliament will begin its discussion.

The political opposition has ”a clearer plan” for the emigrants. Their main goal is most likely not the return of Georgians to their homeland, their active inclusion in the electoral process. The opposition believes that the majority of emigrants are their potential electorate and periodically demands from the authorities that they create all the conditions for Georgian citizens living in other countries to be able to participate in national elections.

The demographic picture is rapidly changing, also due to foreign citizens staying for a long time in Georgia. During the rule of the Georgian Dream in 2012-2023, many citizens of different countries temporarily or permanently moved to live in Georgia. Since the Georgian Dream came to power, 225,865 citizens of foreign countries have settled in Georgia, including 93,872 citizens of Russia. Of the Russians in Georgia in 2022,56,369 came to live there, and according to the leader of the ruling party, Irakli Kobakhidze, the number of Russians already makes up 10% of the total population of the country, while the number of Russians in Georgia until 2012 was almost 0%. Citizens of 99 countries and territories can stay in Georgia without visas for a whole year, including all countries of the post-Soviet space, the USA, the countries of the Middle East, Asia, South America, etc. This liberal norm makes it easier for foreigners to move to Georgia. Even fictitious marriages between Georgian citizens and foreign citizens have multiplied. In this way, foreigners try to facilitate the procedure for obtaining a residence permit In Georgia. Recently, the authorities have tightened the law to prevent such fictitious marriages.

It is paradoxical that Georgians can hardly find a job in Georgia when they emigrate and foreigners take their place, but none of the emigrants remain unemployed in Georgia. Most of them open their businesses without any obstacles, mainly in the field of hotel business, but they also open restaurants, cafe-bars, etc. Moreover, even guides from the tourism sector have recently begun to protest in the country. Before this, the tourism industry in Georgia was considered profitable, although in recent years foreigners have begun to open their own illegal travel agencies and illegally serve foreign tourists, offering them taxi services, guides, and other tourist services. Many of these businesses do not even pay taxes. Hence, foreigners take jobs from the local population.

It is already obvious that, along with socio-economic problems, Georgia will face an acute demographic crisis, and the political elite will be forced to somehow intervene to reverse the situation. Ironically, politicians who for many years ignored the demographic problems in the country are now complaining more and more that the number of their supporters and voters is rapidly declining due to the growth of emigration.

Dr. Beka Chedia is Researcher and Assoc. Professor of Political Science from Tbilisi, Georgia. He is a Country Expert (Georgia) in the several international research programmes, political analyst and writing contributor to several leading think tanks, research centers in Europe in US. He had been a visiting scholar at several higher educational institutions and think tanks in Western and Eastern Europe.