By Anna Vardanyan for Caucasus Watch

“Armenia's relations with Iran and Georgia should be free of geopolitical influences”,- this was the comment of acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on John Bolton’s statements made in Armenia , where the latter voiced the United State’s intention to put more pressure on Iran. Commenting on this announcement on November 1 in Parliament, the acting prime minister said that Armenia respects the statements of “some officials”, but Yerevan has its own national and state interests. Pashinyan believes that Armenia's position so far has been made clear, was perceived and was even acceptable for US officials.

At the same time, Nikol Pashinyan did not exclude that the border between Armenia and Iran could be closed at any time. "The Armenian-Iranian border can be de facto closed at any moment due to the US-Iranian relations and the geopolitical situation. The Armenian-Georgian border also can be de facto closed, for example, due to bad weather or geopolitical conditions,"said Pashinyan.

Pashinyan’s statement has led to misinterpretations by some Armenian political circles, among them have even been voiced assessments that Armenian current authorities are paving the way for a revision of the border policy with Iran. The chairman of the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Foreign Relations and Deputy Chairman of the former ruling Republican party Armen Ashotyan, had asked the Foreign Minister of Armenia Zohrab Mnatsakanyan during the commission session on November 2, to explain the prime minister's recent “ drastic” announcement on the de-facto closure of the Armenian-Iranian border. Zohrab Mnatsakanyan responded: "Relations with Iran and Georgia have been and remain a very important issue for our foreign policy.  The Prime Minister’s comment is more about the challenges, not the intention to open or close the border by any side. It refers to the depth of challenges and the numerous developments that can have a negative impact on our national interests”.

Potential risks of the closure of the Armenian-Iranian border

Against the background of these statements, the concerns of Armenian political analysts over the issue do not cease. In an interview with “168 Hours” Armenian daily the political analyst Ashot Movsisyan noted with regard to Nikol Pashinyan's statement, “It should be excluded that the Armenian-Iranian border can be closed, as Iran is one of the lifelines of Armenia, and the closure of the border may have a great impact on the Armenian economy and on statehood in general ".  In his opinion, Pashinyan's statement was purely theoretical, and it is not realistic to consider that the Armenian-Iranian border could be closed at this stage, since there is no force in the world that can compel Armenia to close the Armenian-Iranian border by offering some dividends. “Armenia's partners realize the fact that the border is vital for us, and Armenia simply cannot take such an adventurous step", concluded the expert.

"The closure of the Iranian border may harm Armenia, as it will be difficult to achieve normalization and regulation of political relations between the parties, it will create a new situation in the region, new challenges, even with closed eyes this can be seen ", said the editor-in-chief of the “Arax” weekly in Iran, Movses Keshishyan, in an interview with “168 Hours” daily, referring to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's observations on the possibility of closing the Armenian-Iranian border.

For his part, Russian orientalist Alexei Malashenko said he does not believe that such a scenario is possible, or the Armenian side will take such a step. However, according to him, probably that statement has an addressee, taking into account the fact that the United States expectations for Armenia’s relations to Iran and for this region in general. "At present, we see that the Prime Minister of Armenia tries to show that Armenia is absolutely sovereign, makes independent decisions, regardless of all the superpowers, but from time to time there are evolving talks about such steps, which can be considered as a willingness to content a certain country. But it is difficult to believe in its realization, since Armenia is already under blockade and has always tried to maintain a positive relationship with its two remaining neighbors ", he said.