Break in the negotiations on a conflict resolution regarding Nagorno-Karabakh

Despite the signaled readiness of Baku, there was no meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Although the two ministers were in Munich at the same time, the opportunity to talk remained unused. Previously, the Azerbaijani minister had not ruled out that he would meet with his Armenian counterpart in Munich - among other things, to discuss the organization of an official meeting between the heads of state. Yet, in Munich, the Armenian Foreign Minister announced that no meeting with Mammadyarov was planned.

On the other hand, the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group visited Yerevan and Baku on 20 - 21 February, where they met first with the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan and a day later with the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. No statement on the results of the visit was put out. Experts estimate that the co-chairmen of the Minsk Group are currently working to organize a meeting between the heads of state of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan met last in Davos, but this was an informal conversation. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said on February 25 that a meeting at the level of heads of state was in preparation, but did not name a specific timeline.

During the visit of the co-chairs in the South Caucasus, an unmanned Armenian plane was shot down at the ceasefire line, Azerbaijani media reported. The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan published several photos of the downed machine as proof. According to the Armenian sources, these are older photos. The loss of the unmanned aircraft is denied by Armenia.

Despite the lengthy pause in the negotiations, representatives of the international community continue to put out optimistic statements regarding a potential conflict resolution. For example, OSCE Secretary General Thomas Greminger described the commitment of Azerbaijan and Armenia on the need to prepare the populations for peaceful coexistence as a "promising signal".

Former United States Minsk Group Co-Chair Ambassador Richard Hoagland said in an interview with "Voice of America" that the best strategy for resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is "moving forward in small steps". The American diplomat is optimistic about the recent positive developments regarding the negotiation process, but does not expect a breakthrough. The ambassador noted that the conflict constitutes a very complex problem for Pashinyan: "For the first time in a long while, an Armenian head of state does not come from Nagorno-Karabakh. Therefore, he has to be very careful and not make any radical changes, but approach the problem step by step", said Hoagland.

According to Hoagland, there are not only serious disagreements between the parties themselves in the region, but also forces interested in continuing the conflict. "The question is whether the powers of the region are interested in solving this problem. I think Iran is interested in resolving the conflict. But does Russia want the conflict to be resolved? The answer is not clear", said Hoagland. The American diplomat is convinced that there are forces in Moscow which, in the event of a settlement of the Karabakh conflict, will lose an important lever to the conflicting parties.

Since the "Velvet Revolution" in Armenia, there has been growing hope in the international community that the change of power in Yerevan would give new impetus to the peace talks between the two rivaling South Caucasus states. In fact, the ceasefire line has been calm for months. The foreign ministers of the two countries have met four times within the past seven months. Most recently, the two Ministers met in Paris, after which they stated that they had "agreed on the need to take concrete measures to prepare the people for peace".

The Nagorno-Karabakh region belongs to Azerbaijan under international law, but it is occupied by Armenia, which sees itself as a protective power for the Karabakh-Armenians. The OSCE Minsk Group under the co-chairmanship of Russia, France and the USA, has been mediating since 1994 in the search for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Success has not yet been achieved.

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