Moody’s has confirmed the Ba3 long-term issuer ratings for Armenia’s local and foreign currency. It also affirmed the foreign currency senior unsecured ratings. Simultaneously, Moody's has revised the outlook for Armenia’s ratings from negative to stable.

Moody's decision to change the outlook to stable indicates that the risks to Armenia’s credit profile are now balanced. This is a shift from their previous assessment in March 2022, when risks were considered to be skewed to the downside. Over the past year, Armenia has witnessed improvements in its economic and fiscal indicators, largely driven by increased income, capital, and labor from Russia. Moody’s anticipates that a part of this positive trend will continue in the future.

According to Moody's projections, Armenia's real GDP growth is expected to moderate to approximately 7% in 2023 and 5-6% in 2024. This forecast considers the anticipation that the pace of financial and labor flows, which experienced significant growth in 2022, will ease in the coming years.

Moody’s also foresees the government debt burden stabilizing at around 45% of GDP over the next two to three years. This level is lower than the average of 51.7% observed from 2017 through 2019.