On 22 November, Russia’s Foreign and Defence Minister, Sergey Lavrov and Sergey Shoygu respectively, visited Azerbaijan where they met with the country’s President Ilham Aliyev to discuss the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. 

Shoygu stated that the ceasefire has been observed during all this time, but emphasised that some rare and minor military exchanges were still happening in the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. As for Lavrov, he again reiterated his support for the trilateral agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh, adding that any attempts to thwart it would have an unsuccessful result. “Firstly, because the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries, Russia, the USA, and France have repeatedly declared that the Nagorno-Karabakh problem will be solved on the basis of the principles prepared by the Co-Chairs. And secondly, we have always declared, and we also declared this time, during the Moscow visit of the Co-Chairs, that not only this conflict but all conflicts should be approached from the viewpoint of primarily the prevention of peoples’ death, prevention of killing of people in bloody wars, ensuring a life [for] people in a quiet and peaceful condition. If we put geopolitical ambitions in… first place, then we will not be able to do anything here. But we will put aside such attempts and will aim for the realisation of the agreements meeting interests of the peoples living in this region,” Lavrov emphasised.

Lavrov also said that Turkey has become “a real factor in the region.” “Turkey is our partner in a number of areas. Of course, sovereign Azerbaijan has the right to choose its foreign policy partner, just as Armenia also chooses its foreign policy partners. We have a principal agreement with Turkey in regard to establishing a joint Russian-Turkish monitoring centre on the territory of Azerbaijan. This will be an extra factor that will ensure sustainability of the ceasefire,” Lavrov added.  

As for Aliyev, he stressed the important role which Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan played, particularly in strengthening security measures in the region. When speaking on the OSCE Minsk Group’s reaction to the agreement, Aliyev said that their response came late, but was positive nonetheless. “Of course, we had the right to expect a more prompt reaction from them [OSCE Minsk Group], but apparently there were certain factors that did not allow them to develop a position. But as they say, it is better late than never. I know that a meeting of representatives of the OSCE Minsk Group was held in Moscow. I think that their positive approach to the statement will also play an important role in strengthening security measures and long-term peace,” he stated.

A day prior, the two Russian Ministers visited Armenia where they met with the country’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. “Our key task is to prevent bloodshed in the Karabakh conflict zone … and we certainly intend to accomplish it,” stated Shoygu. “Besides, we want to discuss issues relating to the further presence and activities of our peacekeepers [deployed in Karabakh].” Shoygu also said that the Russian-Armenian military cooperation would also be on the agenda. “We have arrived with a big program and hope to implement it,” he added.

Lavrov reaffirmed Russia’s support for “brotherly Armenia” by pointing to the Russian government’s decision to set up the Interagency Center for Humanitarian Reaction tasked with facilitating the return of ethnic Armenian refugees to Karabakh and reconstruction of the region’s civilian infrastructure.

As for Pashinyan, he expressed his hopes to deepen cooperation with Russia in security and military-technical areas. “A new military-political situation in our region emerged…[and] I think that we need to take a new look at our strategic vision in the near-term and strategic context,” he added when speaking with Shoygu. When speaking with Lavrov, Pashinyan commended the Russian peacekeepers for ensuring the security of Karabakh’s residents but said that still some unresolved issues remain. “How are we going to ensure that residents of several [Karabakh] districts exercise their right to return home? Who and how will guarantee the security of our compatriots?” he said. 

A day after meeting Lavrov and Shoygu, Pashinyan received Nagorno-Karabakh’s Arayik Harutunyan in Yerevan for the first time since the trilateral agreement was brokered. Pashinyan said that the Armenian government would continue to provide financial assistance to Karabakh civilians who fled to Armenia or stayed in the territory during the hostilities. Harutunynan said that an estimated 25,000 Karabakh Armenians have returned home in the last five days and that the influx is continuing. He also said that his administration is planning a gradual repatriation of those refugees whose homes were destroyed or seriously damaged during the war.

It was also reported that the Russian military launched de-mining operations in Nagorno-Karabakh as part of their peacekeeping mission. A Russian military spokesman, Pavel Pautov, said the operations will be coordinated with Karabakh authorities. Pautov stated that the process would take several months to be completed.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Turkey and Russia are at odds over Ankara’s wish to set up an independent military observation post on Azerbaijan’s territory, according to a Turkish source. The source highlighted that Russian and Turkish officials have yet to agree on the parameters of the monitoring mechanism. However, Turkey also wants its own independent observation post to boost its influence in a region it sees as key to its own security. Russia, on the other hand, considers that it is unnecessary for Turkey to establish an observation post in the region independent of the joint centre. The Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akkar also stated that Turkish soldiers would assist the Russian ones in de-mining the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

In an interview with the Azerbaijani news agency APA, Germany’s ambassador to Azerbaijan Wolfgang Manig expressed his country’s views on the trilateral agreement, saying that the work under the OSCE Minsk Group must continue to find the final settlement. “The tripartite statement of November 9 does neither address the details of the relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia nor the rights and duties of the people – whether Azerbaijanis or Armenians – living in the conflict area, a comprehensive and sustainable settlement of the conflict is still pending. The mandate of the Minsk Group contains the facilitation of such a settlement and is, therefore, not yet exhausted and thus, the work of the Co-Chairs and the Minsk Group will continue,” he stated.