Author: Anna Vardanyan, special reporting for Caucasus Watch

The internal political situation in Armenia is tense. Following the statements, there are revolutionaries and anti-revolutionaries in Armenia, we can also say that the political situation is aggravated from both sides periodically, revolutionaries and counter- revolutionaries alike. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that the deputies of the forces, who will vote in favor of amendments to the NA Rules of Procedure bill, are anti-revolutionary. Let us remind ourselves that with this change, the process of holding NA extraordinary elections after the resignation of the Prime Minister is complicated. The disagreements between the political parties became more evident when the RPA decided to make an amendment to the Rules of Procedure of the National Assembly within just one night. To put it mildly, this filled revolutionaries’ patience and on October 2 in the evening they held a massive demonstration in front of the Parliament building. Around the same time, the revolution's leaders were holding talks with representatives of the political forces. On October 3, there were various statements made by representatives of certain political forces regarding the meeting with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. As a result, it became clear that the tense situation will continue and will lead to the deepening of the political crisis as they did not come to an agreement. In particular, NA Vice President Eduard Sharmazanov presented the situation in such a way that Nikol Pashinyan doesn't seem willing to make any concessions but only informs about his plans.

At the moment, the only commonality of revolutionaries and anti-revolutionaries is that they all want to go to snap elections and the only problem here is the timing.

On October 3, after the governments Q&A session, Nikol Pashinyan reaffirmed that extraordinary parliamentary elections will be held on December 2018. Moreover, the prime minister noted that despite of whether the memorandum on nomination of the Prime Minister by other factions will be signed or not, their scenario of holding elections is in force.

"In December, there will be snap parliamentary elections, and I have said there are two options. The parliamentary factions go to those elections in the atmosphere of cooperation or non-cooperation. The atmosphere of cooperation is that we try to improve the Electoral Code. We say that we are ready, moreover, international organizations say they would propose amendments to the Electoral Code, we have no problem if it will correspond to international standards, "he said.

RPA Deputy Chairman Armen Ashotyan stated in the parliament on October 3 that the RPA will not nominate the Prime Minister; only if snap elections are held in May, for to bring reform to the Electoral Code, adequately inform international observers, let other parties get ready for the elections, calm down the situation and only after that go for new elections. And the Prosperous Armenia announces that they have no formal decision not to nominate the PM. Deputy speaker of the Parliament Mikayel Melkumyan from the “Tsarukyan” faction also noted that they do not see any reason to hold elections in December and stick to their viewpoint that the elections should take place in May.

At the moment, we can conclude that there is no consensus among the political forces to hold snap elections in December.

Local politicians and analysts are worried that the current political crisis could turn into a constitutional crisis. Director of the Centre for European Studies Artur Ghazinyan thinks that "the resolution of the crisis are the extraordinary parliamentary elections, in the framework of the Armenian Constitution and legislation, however, snap elections should not be an end-in-itself and should actually solve the current crisis, not deepening it and causing additional dangers for the national security of Armenia instead. Another matter of concern is whether it is possible to have a political choice, free from the emotional atmosphere prevailing in the current realities. It is necessary to create equal conditions for all political forces to guarantee the fairness, freedom, transparency and competitiveness of the elections and to make the results overall acceptable. We should not forget that the elections of the Yerevan City Council, even if they passed at the highest level and were not disputed by anybody, nevertheless, they had a local character and could not be identified with the national elections in terms of their politicization, importance and vital role”.

The analysis of some political circles alarm that, at the moment, the resignation of the prime minister is risky. The president of "Modus Vivendi" Center for Social Science, Armenian lawyer, historian and diplomat Ara Papian considers Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's resignation risky, because, according to him, there is no assurance that the other parliamentary factions RPA, Prosperous Armenia, and ARF will not nominate a candidate for prime minister." There is more confidence that they will nominate their candidate, and it will be difficult to prevent, because it’s about blocking the building for two weeks, which is not a definite option to hinder the voting. It is not compulsory that everyone has to be present and vote there, it is enough to register, and they can already send their votes in a written way, "he said. On the other hand, as per Papyan, if they nominate the prime minister and try to vote, it increases the likelihood of collisions. According to Ara Papian, if they leave the events to develop in such way, it is possible to face completely different developments. "The anti-revolutionary forces may resort to actions that we do not even think about, and we must beware of it and hold a referendum. This is the only way! "he said. It is not about necessarily the referendum, but a plebiscite, that is, survey, documentation of political willpower " he said and stressed the need to hold a referendum with following query: "Do you agree that snap elections will take place and the Parliament will be dissolved?". The people are voting, and the supreme source of legitimacy is the people. And on this basis you get once again a legal mandate of extraordinary elections", he said.