(By Anna Vardanyan for Caucasus Watch)

After the Prime Minister's resignation, the expected dissolution of the National Assembly and holding snap parliamentary elections, a new political situation will begin to take shape in Armenia. As a result of negotiations and dialogue between the Prime Minister and rivaling political forces over the last few days, some agreements have been reached, which implies that the solution is not far off. Recent political processes that took place in Armenia lead to the mitigation of tensions. Following the recent political developments, we can assume that snap elections will take place after Nikol Pashinyan's resignation. There are at least several crucial indications for such an assumption. First, on October 8, a memorandum was signed between “Prosperous Armenia Party” (PAP) leader Gagik Tsarukyan and PM Nikol Pashinyan. According to the document, the “Prosperous Armenia” will not nominate a new candidate in case of the Prime Minister's resignation and will not support any other candidate. Then, “The Republican Party of Armenia” (RPA) made a statement on October 9, which made clear that they will not nominate a candidate for prime minister. In addition, 17 members of RPA and one member of PAP have confirmed their support by giving their signatures for snap elections to be held in December. The ARF Dashnaktsutyun, in its turn, has stated that if all the political forces decide that the elections should be held in December, the ARF will not hinder them. A member of ARF’s parliamentary group, Spartak Seyranyan, said during a briefing in the National Assembly on October 8 that if all the forces come to terms with the fact that the elections should be held in December, we will agree and remain faithful to their pledge and will not nominate a PM candidate. On October 10, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced in an interview with the TV channel France 24 that he is going to resign on October 16. Pashinyan resigned yesterday.

"Extraordinary elections must take place on December 9-10, after I submit my resignation on October 16," he said. The resignation of the prime minister could somehow be a violation to the latest amendment to the law on National Assembly regulations, however, though it has been adopted by a majority of the National Assembly, it has not yet been approved by RA President Armen Sargsyan.

Consequently, we can already state that Armenia is in the pre-election logic and practically all forces are in the process of preparation for the December snap elections. Overall, the situation in Armenia is interesting. Although an extraordinary election will be held in December, it is clear that the election is just a matter of form. In December, the full victory of the velvet revolution and the change of power will be acknowledged by popular vote, thus completing the revolutionary phase and starting the transition to the political stage. Accordingly, the parliament which will be formed in December will be an interim, transitional parliament. Parallel to this, the real policy in Armenia should evolve outside the parliament. The new parliament will be too narrow in terms of constituting a political arena, because it will reflect the image, which should gradually transform into political life. Even as a political force, Nikol Pashinyan's “Civil Contract” itself has a problem of policy formulation, as there is only one political focal point within that party, Nikol Pashinyan.

One can say that the phase of government change, the so-called direct participation stage of the people is coming to an end in Armenia. A new round of political dialogue, inter-agreements, and even "political trade" is now starting. And for Moscow, Washington, and Brussels this stage is much more important than the revolutionary stage or the government change. It is here, where real-politics is taking place rather than the promotion of slogans and populism. And at this stage, the geopolitical balance that has been disrupted in Armenia for a while will gradually be restored, taking into consideration the interests of all sides. In this regard, it is important to realize that from Beijing to Moscow, from Moscow to Brussels and from Brussels to Washington, everybody has their interests in Armenia and the South Caucasus. What will this stage bring to ordinary Armenian citizens? In the material sense, nothing. However, the general atmosphere of public moods can lead to a gradual reduction of tensions. Especially for parts of the Armenian political forces, which are members of major international party groups and who have an impact on global political processes, it is impossible to ignore. Certainly, the Armenian people decide what to take into account in a specific political situation, but at the same time it is clear that when it comes to Realpolitik, it is impossible to overlook the attitudes of Armenia's foreign partners. In this sense, not only Moscow but also Western partners were talking about changing power through the constitutional path. One of the key pillars of the success of the velvet revolution was the tactful work on methodology and the selection of means, which shielded the revolutionary process from excessive external challenges and speculations.  The reactions from Russia are also a hint that Moscow sees no problem in revising the April 2 election results. Such reactions are noteworthy, in the sense that Moscow has been the so-called "high court" for the previous system in Armenia, and this became evident during the velvet revolution, when attempts were made regularly to manipulate the Armenian-Russian relations in order to evoke problems between Moscow and Nikol Pashinyan. In that sense, it is also notable that on October 2 Nikol Pashinyan announced that he will also discuss the roadmap with his Francophone partners. The key factor here was clearly the French President Macron. And Pashinyan’s announcement of the early parliamentary election in New York, while speaking in front of the UN General Assembly, right before the UN Secretary-General Guterres complimented Armenia as a model for smooth change for the whole world. Therefore, the internal transformation of Armenia proceeds simultaneously with the making of geopolitical compromise. A mutual consensus for both processes is needed. The basis of changes is the will of public majority, and geopolitical power centers are well aware of the vicious effects that will is ignored. These are the political centers, unlike Armenia's apolitical parties, who are trying to resist the changes in Armenia, without realizing the lacking depth of their involvement.