On April 30, a concert dedicated to the 30th anniversary of establishing Armenian-Russian diplomatic relations was held on Shahumyan Square in the center of Yerevan. While Armenian and Russian musicians performed on the stage, and loud patriotic music and balalaikas played, various city places were seized by opposition rallies, with the one just 200 meters away from the square in front of the Prosecutor’s Office. A group of people, carrying the photos of their beloved sons and husbands, who were assassinated in the 2020 war in Nagorno Karabakh, speaking on the louder demanded an arrest of the PM Nikol Pashinyan as he confessed that he could prevent the war but instead, he decided to send people to death.

“Yes, we could have prevented the war if I surrendered (the territories in Nagorno Karabakh), as a result, we would have had the same situation, but of course, without casualties and without surrendering them, in fact, I became the author of decisions that led to thousands of victims," said Nikol Pashinyan at the Parliament on April 13. He said he could not persuade himself to talk about this with people for several reasons.

The Revolutionary Armenian Government came to power in 2018, proclaiming the principles of liberal democracy and a pro-Western vector in foreign policy. However, over time, particularly after the defeat in the war, the necessity for a new course became evident. Armenia became dependent on Russia like never before in the security issue of NK, with Russian peacekeepers deployed in the region.

The war in Ukraine can serve as a litmus paper for official Yerevan to choose between the vectors. Armenia did not express solidarity with Russia, yet it also abstained from condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the UN General Assembly on March 2. Experts say this was the first time in its history when Armenia did not support Russia. 

“Any person who comes to politics in Armenia, if he is not crazy, will pursue the policy of no choice, trying not to turn Armenia into a battlefield between the West and Russia," said Alexandr Iskandaryan, a political scientist, the Director of the Yerevan-based Caucasus Institute. “There were four leaders in Armenia, who were extremely different people, with different backgrounds, levels of education, territorial and professional origins, and yet the foreign policy remained approximately the same all these times, as it is not conditioned by those who are pro-Western and who are not, but rather a range of facts such as Karabakh conflict, Turkey's membership in NATO, Georgia, located between Armenia and Russia, the border with Iran…”, he added. “No one in politics in Armenia can change that. Armenia has fairly good relations with Georgia and Iran, despite the attitude of the West towards Iran and Russia towards Georgia. We have to explain accordingly that 70 percent of the cargo passes from Russia through Georgia, and to the Americans that gas from Luxembourg cannot reach Armenia, it can come from Iran”.

However, pro-Russian supporters who are prevailed by the opposition in the country do not trust the leaders of Armenia and blame them for the lack of commitment in the case of the security of Nagorno Karabakh and its population. According to them, Pashinyan is serving the interests of the West, and seizing an opportunity while Russia is busy fighting in Ukraine, innately masterminds to ‘sacrifice’ Nagorno Karabakh to shake off Russia from the region. 

“Yerevan today is reminiscent of that of Istanbul in 1915, where all the global intelligence is present, and each of them has their own agenda, serving against Armenia, said Alla Hakopyan, the head of the Women’s Union of the Movement for Strong Armenia with Russia - for new Union, who attended the concert. We, Armenians, must stand up and help our country, and we hope that we are on the same wavelength with Russia against Nazism."

Hakopyan said that the Movement organizes motions to demonstrate support to Russia and particularly its position in the war with Ukraine.

“On the day of Victory, May 9, we held the March of the immortal Regiment. In previous years we marched to commemorate and pay tribute to our fathers and grandfathers. This year, though, this march was dedicated to the fight with fascism," she said. "It is important to emphasize our anti-fascist sentiments in support of Russia since Russia is cleaning the world from nazism alone."

Speaking on the Armenian Government's attitude to the campaigns in Armenia to support Russia, she noted that there are no real Armenian authorities. “The ones who call themselves like that are the first to hinder Armenia," she said. “Only the most naive person, or a person far from politics, trusts that they (the authorities) can bring any good for Armenia or wish to improve relations with Russia."

“They (the authorities) are absolutely pro-Western, and none of us believe them," told Hakopyan. She pinpointed that the rallies in Armenia are against Pashinyan and his regime, who may doom Armenia to repeat the same fate as Ukraine. “People who understand this know that this will be the end of Armenia, so the opponents stood up against Pashinyan because if you consider everything he did, evidently you see he is a pro-Turkish politician and does everything to please Turkey."

Pro-Russian supporters assured that the country's leadership viewed Russia as the main obstacle for Armenia to integrate into the European Union. Experts, though, believe that an opportunity for Armenian integration into the EU is a vague and poorly substantiated idea. It per se implies the integration into Turkey and Azerbaijan, which, given the traumatic history, might result in catastrophic consequences for Armenians.

The military invasion in Ukraine, launched on February 24, was marked by the fierce shelling of the cities all over Ukraine. Russia claims that the operation has several objectives, including protecting the civilian population of Donbas, the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and the elimination of threats to Russia emanating from Ukrainian territory due to its development by NATO countries. 

As a result of the military actions, both sides suffered significant losses among the military. There were also losses among the civilian population, and almost seven million people fled the country. The West harshly condemned the war and introduced sanctions against Russia. Russia has also been excluded from the Council of Europe.

Hakopyan said that NATO member countries made a scapegoat out of Ukraine. “This unfortunate country was chosen, the regime there is a pro-Nazi regime, and the people are unhappy. They just kept silent, afraid and silent. A huge country of 40 million has been turned into a foothold for the West, which started a war with Russia without declaring it. Still, they are actually waging this war with it, fuelling billions of dollars and delivering weapons," she said.

As the global attention is concentrated on the war in Ukraine, the shared sentiments in Armenia concerning this war are tinged with bitter disappointment. It is because of the mute reaction of the international community to their pain when Azerbaijan, with the support of Turkey, launched a war in Nagorno Karabakh in 2020. Most Armenians, while refraining from political assessment and motivation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, much because of their own dependency on Russia’s security system, also feels the world ignored and silenced the humanitarian and political consequences of Azerbaijan’s military operations in Nagorno Karabakh.

Some anti-Ukrainian sentiments in Armenia can be explained by Ukraine’s long-standing support of Azerbaijan on the Karabakh issue. Armenians fiercely reacted to the post the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine made on Twitter, supporting the invasion of the Azerbaijani armed forces of the village of Parukh in Nagorno-Karabakh on March 24. Although the tweet was later deleted, the memory is still present and interpreted in public as an "offense.''

On April 21, pro-Ukrainian activists and refugees from Ukraine, led by the European Party of Armenia leader, Tigran Khzmalyan, gathered with the motion against the Russian invasion at the embassy of Russia Yerevan with the EU and Ukrainian flags. However, they were forced to leave the venue as dozens of people came to the Russian embassy in Yerevan with Armenia, Russia, and Nagorno-Karabakh flags to prevent the anti-Russian campaign.

“We have gathered here because Ukraine is pursuing a hostile policy towards Armenia," said Mika Badalyan, the campaign's organizer, addressing the Ukrainians. "You ran away, left your homeland, and came here. Armenia has accepted you; no one is expelling you, but we are against you raising the enemy's symbols, the Nazi state”. He threatened that if the symbols of Ukraine continued to be displayed in Armenia, every Armenian would take it as a personal insult. “If you do not want to live in peace in our country, you will not live in peace,” threatened Badalyan.

Badalyan was later charged under Article 259 of the Criminal Code (false denunciation of terrorism) and jailed for a month for publishing a post on his Telegram channel. He said that “Nikol Pashinyan wants to disrupt his visit to Moscow by organizing terrorist attacks." Some experts and Badalyan himself believe he was detained for the protest in support of Russia against Ukraine at the Russian Embassy and noticed that this happened after Pashinyan’s meetings in Brussels.

Pro-Russian supporters in Armenia still sympathize with the victims of war, yet they believe it was inevitable.

“War is bad, no one wants to violate territorial integrity, yet we live at times when weak is always wrong," said Inga Sarukhanyan, a participant at the concert. "If Donbas, Luhansk, and Donetsk, want to be independent, someone should have helped them. That is why Russia stood up to protect the population of these regions."

A pro-Russian politician, Tigran Urikhanyan, the Chairman of the Progressive Center Party “Alliance," believes that the West played the same scenario in Armenia as it played in Ukraine. “What is going on in Ukraine now is a big tragedy which started eight years ago, when civilians - children, women, and old people were killed in Donetsk and Luhansk," said Urikhanyan. He said that his political party seeks to strengthen and reanimate relationships with Russia and the Russian people”.

Although the Armenian MFA stated that the recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk is not on the Armenian political agenda, the pressure on Armenia may be increased from Russia.

“Yerevan does not react to what is happening in Ukraine… It tries to maintain a balance and not enter into a conflict that does not directly concern it”, told Iskandaryan. “Armenia has strong connections and interests in Ukraine and Russia, several hundred thousand Armenians who live in Ukraine, including representatives of the Armenian people in the elites in the country, and the same is Russia. The position is to reduce risks. On the other side of Russia, Armenia has Turkey and Iran, not Europe. This is a situation where risk minimization is a rational policy. And everyone understands this”.

PM’s meetings in Brussels differ from that in Moscow in concept. Unlike European officials, Russians are committed to providing security and maintaining their presence in Nagorno Karabakh, which is pretty clear-cut for Karabakh Armenians for their secure existence at home.

Iskandaryan thinks that the situation always presents a threat. If Armenia is forced to make a choice, it will have to make a choice. “It is quite obvious which direction Armenia would have to choose, as the physical security of the citizens of NK is now provided not by Armenians but by Russians," said Iskandaryan. “However, Russia does not require Armenia to show such loyalty now," he said.

Oksana Musaelyan is a reporter based in Yerevan. She is also a founder of Refugee Voice Advocacy and Rights Protection NGO in Armenia, and a finalist of the UK Alumni Award from Armenia for 2021-2022