2025 is not off to a great start in Georgia. The political crisis that erupted in late 2024 following Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s controversial statement that Georgia “would not put the issue of opening negotiations with the European Union on the agenda until the end of 2028,” continues to deepen.The population is alarmed by the prime minister's bold declaration and the Georgian Dream (GD) party's increased anti-Western rhetoric since the war in Ukraine.

After celebrating EU candidate status in December 2023, many accuse the government of halting the country’s three-decade-long pursuit of European integration and demand snap elections to placate the political crisis. Since November 28, 2024, mass demonstrations have blocked off Tbilisi’s central Rustaveli Avenue. 

The Georgian Dream, however, shows no signs of backing down. On the contrary, it has been tightening its grip on power, leveraging law enforcement and the legal system to carry out mass arrests of demonstrators and ensure their prolonged detention. The newly formed Parliament, which has yet to gain legitimacy from the international community amid accusations of rigged elections, also elected its sole nominee as president—Mikheill Kavelashvili—an unpopular retired soccer player with no higher education.

Georgian Dream’s Legitimacy Crisis 

For the international community, it has been clear that the GD has turned Georgia into a country with a single-party parliament and an electoral college that almost unanimously elects the sole presidential nominee on the ballot. Meanwhile, Kobakhidze and his team dismiss accusations of democratic backsliding and deflect attention to challenges in European democracies.

Unsurprisingly, the international response to the Georgian Dream’s 2024 election victory has been tepid at best. Only a handful of countries—Hungary, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, China, and Venezuela—offered congratulations. Most European and American allies refrained from recognizing the election results or acknowledging Kavelashvili as the new president. 

To name a few, Stephen Doughty, the UK Minister of State for Europe, North America, and UK Overseas Territories, referred to Maka Bochorishvili as a “Georgian Dream representative” rather than the Foreign Minister of Georgia in a post on X following their meeting. Romania, Italy, and Spain accused Kobakhidze of spreading misinformation after he publicly thanked them for “defending the interests of the Georgian people” and opposing sanctions against Georgian Dream members during an EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting. 

The European Commission proposed to suspend visa-free travel for Georgian diplomatic passport holders, while the U.S. has already sanctioned two officials from Georgia’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Georgian Dream’s billionaire founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine, and the UK have also imposed sanctions on senior Georgian authorities, with the UK Parliament member James MacCleary introducing an Early Day Motion calling for sanctioning Ivanishvili. 

To address the crisis, the Georgian Dream has placed overly high expectations on the incoming Trump administration in the United States, with Kobakhidze declaring that “everything will be as Trump says.” However, Donald Trump’s close ally, Representative Joe Wilson, has been a leading advocate for sanctioning high-ranking GD members and introducing the “Georgian Nightmare Non-Recognition Act” in Congress with his Democrat colleague Steve Cohen. 

No Georgian Dream officials have been invited to Donald Trump’s inauguration either. In contrast, Wilson has extended an invitation to Zourabichvili, who maintains that she remains Georgia’s only legitimate president even after inaugurating Kavelashvili in December 2024. With French President Emmanuel Macron’s mediation, Trump also met with Zourabichvili during the reopening of Cathédrale Notre-Dame de Paris, while Kobakhidze’s attempts to contact Trump over the past several months have been unsuccessful. 

The Georgian Dream is grappling with international recognition, and it appears unlikely that Donald Trump’s administration will prioritize salvaging its image. Consequently, the party has already tempered its expectations for Trump’s support, claiming that he should first defeat the “Deep State,” which is behind “revolution attempts” in Georgia, according to the GD. To offset the party’s damaged reputation in the West, Kobakhidze continues to strengthen ties with Hungary, China, and Azerbaijan and assures party supporters that Georgia remains committed to joining the EU by 2030.

A Polarized Nation 

Despite Kobakhidze’s controversial declaration that Georgia would table EU accession negotiations until 2028, the Georgian Dream adamantly insists that the country remains committed to its European path. Party members have argued that Kobakhidze’s statement was merely a refusal to “beg” the EU or allow European bureaucracies to “blackmail” the Georgian government. Instead, they claim the government will focus on fulfilling the EU’s criteria for opening accession negotiations, strengthening the economy, and preparing for EU membership by 2030. As Maka Bochorishvili stressed, “If the EU enlarges in 2030, Georgia will be best prepared among all the candidate countries.” 

However, the Georgian Dream’s track record of broken promises undermines its credibility. After all, the GD parliamentary members adopted the controversial ‘foreign agent’ law in 2024 despite assuring the population that they would not reconsider it following the backlash in 2023. As a result, many Georgians struggle to believe that the party still pursues a European path after straining relations with Western leaders and postponing EU accession negotiations.

The crisis has split the population into supporters of the Georgian Dream and a pro-European opposition, which includes a large segment of the country’s youth. The GD has consistently labeled demonstrators as “foreign-funded agents,” “stateless” or “rootless” individuals, accusing them of attempting to overthrow a patriotic government to install puppets of the so-called Deep State or Global War Party. In contrast, demonstrators contend that the Georgian Dream is pro-Russian, and supporting it means aligning with an enemy. 

Perceptions of the events, therefore, depend on one’s allegiance—for the Georgian Dream camp, it is a struggle between patriots and foreign agents; for the rest, it is pro-Russians versus pro-Europeans. 

What Happens Next? 

The Georgian Dream has taken no responsibility for the ongoing crisis and has made little to no effort to rectify the situation. According to the party, the current turmoil is “artificially” steered and controlled by the West to topple the government that refuses to bow to Western pressure.

This narrative, coupled with the Georgian Dream’s actions, has triggered a wave of resignations in civil service, including the Georgian ambassadors to Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, the USA, Italy, South Korea, and the Netherlands. A high-ranking official from the Ministry of Internal Affairs’ Special Tasks Department, Irakli Shaishmelashvili, also left his post and immigrated to the United States due to security concerns. Following his high-profile resignation, Shaishmelashvili gave interviews highlighting systemic flaws within the Ministry and the GD’s weaponization of law enforcement to remain in power. 

Despite significant international and internal pressure, the likelihood of the Georgian Dream backing down remains slim. While Fifth President Zourabich     vili, opposition leaders, and international allies push for democratic reforms and snap elections, it is business as usual for the GD. The party has doubled down on its tactics, relying on conspiracy theories, patriotic rhetoric, and its control over state institutions to strengthen support among isolationist and euro-integration-fatigued segments of the population.

Yet, the protesters remain equally unyielding. They are acutely aware of Ivanishvili’s heavy reliance on his financial interests, particularly his multi-billion-dollar investments in the United States, the U.K., and other Western countries. Counting on the possibility of large-scale targeted sanctions, they hope that freezing his assets could compel Ivanishvili and the Georgian Dream to reconsider their stance.

The tug-of-war between the Georgian Dream and its opposition is unlikely to resolve quickly. With President Donald Trump now in office, his foreign policies and stance on the war in Ukraine are likely to create ripple effects in Georgia. But it is too early to posit what Trump’s presidency might mean for Georgia’s political crisis. 

About author: Ketevan Chincharadze is a foreign policy scholar and analyst focusing on great power competition in Eastern Europe. She has advised the Aspen Institute’s Congressional Program in Washington D.C., worked at the NATO Liaison Office in Georgia, and researched with the U.S. Army.