As the European Union Monitoring Mission in Armenia (EUMA) approaches its two-year mandate expiration in February 2025, its presence has become deeply intertwined with the daily life of border communities while garnering broad support across Armenia's political and civil society spectrum. The mission, which began with a short-term deployment in October 2022 and transformed into a long-term presence in February 2023, has emerged as a stabilizing factor in Armenia's border regions with Azerbaijan, despite facing opposition from neighboring states and becoming a focal point of regional diplomatic tensions.

Mission's Evolution and Current Operations

The EUMA has established a significant presence across Armenia-Azerbaijan border regions, operating from six strategically located field offices in Yeghegnadzor, Jermuk, Martuni, Kapan, Goris, and Ijevan. The mission's scope expanded considerably in late 2023 when the EU Council increased the number of observers from 100 to 209, reflecting the growing commitment to regional stability and the need for comprehensive monitoring coverage.

On December 12, the mission marked a significant milestone, announcing the completion of the 4,000th patrol since its establishment in February 2023. These patrols, covering approximately 3,800 kilometers weekly, have become a regular feature of life in border areas, where teams conduct daily monitoring activities from their field offices. 

Daniel Ioannisyan, a representative of the Union of Informed Citizens NGO, highlights the mission's tangible impact on security: “Over the past two years of the mission's operation, we've witnessed a fundamental decrease in ceasefire violations. The mission's ability to provide impartial information about troop movements and effectively counter disinformation has proven invaluable. Most importantly, we've seen a significant reduction in border incidents since the mission's deployment.”

Community Engagement and Local Impact

The EUMA has developed a comprehensive approach to community engagement that extends beyond its primary monitoring role. The mission conducts regular "human security missions," where observers visit various settlements, engage with local residents through interpreters, visit educational institutions, and participate in community events. These interactions have become particularly valuable in remote areas where international presence is rare.Nerkin Hand village in the Syunik region, which faces unique security challenges due to its location, serves as a striking example. Surrounded on three sides by Azerbaijani forces, the village was initially inaccessible to EU observers due to the presence of Russian troops. Following the Russian withdrawal, the mission's regular presence has brought changes to community life.

Khachatur Baghdasaryan, the head of Nerkin Hand, tells Caucasus Watch that the observers' regular visits have had a positive effect on the village. "EU observers' presence noticeably restrains Azerbaijani soldiers' behavior," Baghdasaryan explains. “Our residents have developed a strong belief that the observers' presence helps prevent provocations from the opposing side.” The impact extends beyond security considerations. The regular presence of international observers has helped combat the isolation many border communities experience, with residents reporting increased confidence in maintaining their daily activities, from agricultural work to children's education.

Operational Framework and Daily Activities

The EUMA operates as an entirely civilian, unarmed mission, functioning as an impartial actor in the region. Its deployment followed a successful pilot phase of the EU Monitoring Capacity (EUMCAP) along the Armenian side of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border from October 20 to December 19, 2022. The mission was established in response to an official request from Armenian authorities, reflecting the country's growing orientation toward European security structures.

The mission's observers engage in a wide range of activities beyond traditional monitoring. They regularly conduct meetings with local residents through interpreters, visit educational institutions, and engage with civil society representatives. The observers document local concerns, monitor security situations, and provide regular reports to Brussels about developments in the border regions.

The mission's reporting mechanism has contributed to a more accurate understanding of the situation on the ground, playing a crucial role in the EU's high-level efforts to normalize Armenia-Azerbaijan relations. The observers provide reliable, first-hand information about developments in the border regions, helping to counter disinformation and offer an objective assessment of security situations. This information flow has proven particularly valuable in times of tension, allowing for rapid verification of claims and prevention of escalation based on misinformation.

Political Support and Civil Society Perspective

The mission enjoys broad support across Armenia's political spectrum, including from opposition parties traditionally seen as having pro-Russian foreign policy orientations. Elinar Vardanyan, an opposition MP from the "Armenia" faction and member of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on European Integration, expresses concern about the delay in extending the mission's mandate: “It's more than strange that there's still no decision on extending the mandate, and I understand that Azerbaijan's dissatisfaction is one of the main reasons, and our authorities seem reluctant to act against it.”

The MP emphasizes the mission's deterrent role: “While we all understand that this isn't a mission to prevent possible attacks, it provides an opportunity to use it as a deterrent mechanism in case of possible Azerbaijani aggression. The mission has been quite active in Armenia for two years, and there should be a decision to extend its term.”

Civil society representatives have also voiced strong support for the mission. Daniel Ioannisyan notes that while local residents often have high expectations of the EU observers, the mission's presence has been instrumental in maintaining regional stability. "What we observe from Yerevan – that the border has become more peaceful since the observers' deployment – the local population feels even more acutely," he elaborates.

Expert Analysis and Mission Effectiveness

In an exclusive interview with Caucasus Watch, Benyamin Poghosyan, Senior Research Fellow at APRI Armenia, provides a nuanced assessment of the mission's achievements and limitations. "If we analyze these two years of the monitoring mission, it can be evaluated as an initiative with limited success - not because it could have achieved more but didn't, but because the mission's tasks, capabilities, and possibilities were inherently limited from the start," he explains.

According to Poghosyan, the mission serves two primary purposes: "It acts as one of the political deterrence factors against escalation by Azerbaijan, and it fits into the EU's desire to have a more intensive position in the negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan."The expert emphasizes that the mission's establishment coincided with a period of intensive negotiations in Brussels. “Let's not forget the intensive negotiations on the Brussels platform in 2022 - April, May, and August. Even Azerbaijan's September 2022 aggression against Armenia didn't significantly derail this Brussels platform. Moreover, we had the famous Prague Declaration in October 2022.”

Poghosyan anticipates an extension of the mission's mandate for another two years, assuming no extraordinary developments occur. However, he adds that the longer-term future of the mission could depend on developments in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2025. “If the United States succeeds in reaching certain agreements with Russia and freezing the conflict in Ukraine, Russia might have more resources to focus on other regions, including the South Caucasus.”

Poghosyan also provides insight into the broader regional dynamics affecting the mission's work. He argues that the situation has become more complex with Azerbaijan's recent positioning of the EU mission as an obstacle to peace. "Azerbaijan's leadership doesn't need a peace treaty. Moreover, a peace treaty could be harmful to them, as family power legitimization relies heavily on nationalism, external enemy narratives, and anti-Armenian sentiment," he explains.

The expert further elaborates that Azerbaijan has set multiple preconditions for peace, including constitutional changes, withdrawal of international court claims, termination of the EU mission, request to dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group, and provision of an extraterritorial corridor. "Even if Armenia were to fulfill all five preconditions, I'm almost certain that Azerbaijan would bring forward several other preconditions the next day," Poghosyan concludes.

Challenges and Responses

The mission has faced serious accusations from both Azerbaijan and Russia. In early October, the Azerbaijan defense ministry-aligned "Caliber" media outlet published footage of European observers conducting a patrol with binoculars, claiming they were "spying on Azerbaijani territory using special equipment together with Armenian military personnel." The EU mission immediately dismissed these accusations as groundless, stating they conduct regular patrols following standard procedures.

Azerbaijan escalated its concerns to a NATO level, with Chief of General Staff Karim Valiyev telling NATO's Director General Janusz Adamczak in October 2024 that the EU mission's deployment was "aggravating the situation." Meanwhile, Russia's opposition, as Poghosyan tells Caucasus Watch, stems from Armenia's decision to “reject CSTO observers and accept European observers at a time when the EU and its member states are effectively in a de facto war with Russia.”

Looking Ahead: The 2025 Decision

The EU Monitoring Mission in Armenia has undeniably contributed to enhanced stability and security in Armenia's border regions while fostering deeper connections between local communities and the international community. Its efforts in reducing ceasefire violations and countering disinformation have been widely recognized and appreciated.

Armenia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has informed Caucasus Watch that it considers the extension of the EU monitoring mission's mandate and its future activities important  while positively assessing its nearly two years of activity. However, the mission operates within clear limitations, both in its mandate and the broader geopolitical landscape. While its presence acts as a deterrent against aggression, it cannot prevent escalations or address the underlying causes of conflict. Moreover, regional dynamics, including opposition from Azerbaijan and Russia, present ongoing challenges to its effectiveness.

As the mission approaches its mandate renewal in February 2025, its future will depend not only on Armenia's support but also on the EU's strategic interests and the evolving geopolitical context. Extending the EUMA's presence would reinforce its role as a stabilizing actor in the South Caucasus, but its long-term success hinges on a coordinated approach to addressing the deeper issues driving regional tensions.

Contributed by Ani Grigoryan, the founder and editor of CivilNetCheck - a fact checking department at CivilNet online TV.